30 Palm Dr #30

Union City, CA 94587

$299,888B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,831/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$804
• Net cashflow: $954/mo
• Annual: $11,447/yr
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.63%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $83,969

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $954 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $291k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#150 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, cost of living F.
• New Haven Unified (suburban): math 43% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #85 of 517 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tom Kitayama Elementary (615 students, 34% FRL); Cesar Chavez Middle (1,012 students, 49% FRL); James Logan High (math 46% / reading 71%, grade C, #223 of 1,170 statewide, top 19%, 3,315 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 1.7% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($134k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.