30 Palm Dr #30 · Union City, CA 94587

$299,888

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Est $402k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 30 Palm Drive, a delightful 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom remodeled home in sought after The Tropics premier 55+ active adult community. This inviting residence features dual-paned windows for energy efficiency, new floors and an updated kitchen with newer appliances. New HVAC energy efficient unit, new interior and exterior paint, new plumbing, extensive Interior upgrades: Sheet rocked & Textured Ceilings for a modern feel with recessed lights. , New Doors with new hardware, New Awnings and much more. All work performed with permits. Offers an open Floor Plan with a living room, formal dining area, brand new kitchen with soft close cabinets, kitchen open to utility room to exterio

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New hvac unit
• Energy efficiency

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW HVAC UNIT
• NEW PLUMBING
• EXTENSIVE INTERIOR UPGRADES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $954 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $291k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 1.7% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#150 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, cost of living F.
• New Haven Unified (suburban): math 43% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #85 of 517 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tom Kitayama Elementary (615 students, 34% FRL); Cesar Chavez Middle (1,012 students, 49% FRL); James Logan High (math 46% / reading 71%, grade C, #223 of 1,170 statewide, top 19%, 3,315 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($134k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $290,891 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.63%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $401,760
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Palm Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-5%)	3mo	$200,000	$146	81
174 Kona Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (+6%)	12mo	$428,000	$279	66
289 Maui Cir	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,541 (+7%)	12mo	$432,500	$281	64
222 Hula Cir #222	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (+12%)	12mo	$390,000	$241	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $14,114
• Equity at exit: $44,714

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $98,620
• Equity at exit: $25,929

Cash invested: $83,969 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94587

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,831 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,498/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$804
• Net cashflow: $954

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,623

Max offer price $299,888

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,161	-5% $1,058	+0% $954	+5% $850	+10% $747
Rent	-10% $651	-5% $803	+0% $954	+5% $1,105	+10% $1,257
Rate	-1.0pp $1,105	-0.5pp $1,030	base $954	+0.5pp $876	+1.0pp $797

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,972
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3842 Cardinal Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1607	$4,100	$2.55	20d	1	0.56mi
2262 Eric Ct #4 Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1003	$3,400	$3.39	5d	1	0.58mi
3716 Harlequin Ter Fremont, CA	4.0	2.5	1855	$4,500	$2.43	45d	1	0.58mi
34426 Bentley Pl Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$3,500	$2.71	22d	1	0.93mi
2449 Almaden Blvd Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1565	$4,495	$2.87	3d	1	0.94mi
4123 Asimuth Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1280	$3,350	$2.62	45d	1	1.03mi
4292 Comet Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,950	$2.36	26d	1	1.14mi
4132 Jamaica Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	1.5	1166	$2,890	$2.48	0d	1	1.20mi
4163 Rainbow Ter Fremont, CA	4.0	2.5	1474	$3,695	$2.51	0d	1	1.20mi
3307 San Marco Ct Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1349	$3,900	$2.89	4d	1	1.34mi
3221 San Carlos Way Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1396	$3,795	$2.72	5d	1	1.37mi
34655 Skylark Dr Union City, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	886	$2,793	$3.15	0d	4	1.40mi
1037 Stone St Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1583	$4,350	$2.75	25d	1	1.41mi
4806 Balthazar Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	3.0	1755	$4,250	$2.42	0d	1	1.42mi
33016 Carrara Ter Union City, CA	4.0	2.5	1650	$3,750	$2.27	7d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-02-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-01
   listed $299,888 Active
3. 2025-12-12
   historical
4. 2025-11-28
   price
5. 2025-07-01
   listed Active
6. 1999-02-22
   soldstatus
7. 1998-12-31
   listed $49,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,798
• − Property taxes: −$4,498
• − Insurance: −$1,499
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,678
• − Management: −$3,678
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $7,094
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,703
• After-tax cash flow: $9,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626910
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $87,202
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1754
• State rank: #85 of 517 in CA

Livability — Union City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #5027

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union City, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 67,464
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,464
• Household income: $133,715
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1565.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 55% Hispanic / Latino 19% White 15% Two or more races 10% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 47% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 13% Tagalog/Filipino 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1280.49%
• Current HPI: 343.0333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+500.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-01 Listed $299,888 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-12 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-07-01 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-02-22 Sold (MLS) — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-12-31 Listed $49,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR