Caraway Plan

Miami Heights, OH 45002

$449,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,680 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,651
• Tax + insurance: −$842
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $62/mo
• Annual: $741/yr
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $141,534

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $449k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($741/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $449k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $436k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#752 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Three Rivers Local (rural): math 58% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #256 of 656 in OH (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Three Rivers Elementary (math 65% / reading 52%, grade B-, #708 of 1,584 statewide, top 45%, 793 students, 35% FRL); Taylor Middle School (math 54% / reading 65%, grade B, #271 of 654 statewide, top 43%, 665 students, 40% FRL); Taylor High School (math 24% / reading 67%, grade D-, #463 of 781 statewide, top 59%, 644 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 801 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (190 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Miami Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,500/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major: exterior siding — Severe wear and peeling paint.
• Major: interior walls/paint — No visible condition assessment, but likely in poor condition based on exterior.
• Major: landscaping — Sparse and in need of maintenance.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No visible condition assessment, but likely in poor condition based on exterior.
• Major: foundation/structure — No visible condition assessment, but likely in poor condition based on exterior.