9310 Shirley Gardens Dr

St. John, MO 63114

$2,399,999C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 6,018 sqft · Built 1960 · MultiFamily · Pending · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $27,823/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,586
• Tax + insurance: −$4,000
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,843
• Net cashflow: $5,394/mo
• Annual: $64,732/yr
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.63%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $672,000

Investor read

• This is a 24 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $2.40M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($65k/yr) — positive. Per door: $225/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($28k rent vs $2.40M).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.26M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $72k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ritenour (suburban): math 13% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #304 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 10 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $720k; list at $2.40M implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $27,823/mo this rent would consume 598% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 1595% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.