820 Gabriella Ct

Mattituck, NY 11952

$1,425,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $16,220/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,473
• Tax + insurance: −$1,264
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,406
• Net cashflow: $4,077/mo
• Annual: $48,924/yr
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.26%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $399,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.43M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($49k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.43M).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.40M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $43k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#461 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $819k; list at $1.43M implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $399k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.0% in Mattituck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.