820 Gabriella Ct · Mattituck, NY 11952

$1,425,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 1996 0.92 ac lot $792/sqft · 28% above area Est $1113k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Oh the privacy. Move right into the open concept cape. Bedroom on the first floor and 2 additional bedrooms on the second with attic room to expand. Walk out the back sliders to an acre of secluded land with Evergreen's surrounding the entire property., Additional information: Appearance:good

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community park; Additional fee for utilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Private trash collection; Underground utilities; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated/remodeled; Two levels
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Back yard fencing; Outbuilding/shed; Private in-ground pool; Located on waterfront; Sprinklers front and rear; Cul-de-sac lot; Near public transit, schools, and shops; Cleared, level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two-level home with rooms across two floors
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric); Forced air heating; Heat pump; Hot air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Primary bedroom on main floor; First-floor bedroom; Primary bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry in basement; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.43M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($49k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.43M).
• Recommended offer: $1.40M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.0% in Mattituck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#461 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $43k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $399k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $819k; list at $1.43M implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,403,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.26%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,112,747
• List price: $1,425,000
• Delta: 28.06%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
770 Meadow Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-11%)	4mo	$822,000	$514	56
925 Theresa Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,900 (+6%)	8mo	$895,000	$471	49
17905 Main Rd	0.25mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,640 (-9%)	22mo	$1,400,000	$854	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $28,316
• Equity at exit: $212,472

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $357,237
• Equity at exit: $123,208

Cash invested: $399,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11952

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,473
• Tax from tax record: −$670 /mo · $8,038/yr
• Insurance: −$594
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,406
• Net cashflow: $4,077

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,059

Max offer price $1,425,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $356,250
• Closing costs: $42,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19000 Main Rd Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	43d	1	0.20mi
1100 Alvahs Ln Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2400	$24,200	$10.08	43d	1	1.12mi
610 Park Ave Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.0	1900	$44,000	$23.16	24d	1	1.21mi
705 Maple Ln Mattituck, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,700	$2.06	43d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,425,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,425,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,425,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,425,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,425,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,425,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,425,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,425,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,425,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,425,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,425,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,425,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,425,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    historical $1,425,000 2662-char remark
15. 2024-01-05
    soldstatus $818,750
16. 2023-05-16
    soldstatus $805,000 Closed 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Oh the privacy. Move right into the open concept cape. Bedroom on the first floor and 2 additional bedrooms on the second with attic room to expand. Walk out the back sliders to an acre of secluded land with Evergreen's surrounding the entire property., Additional information: Appearance:good

17. 2023-03-23
    status Pending 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Oh the privacy. Move right into the open concept cape. Bedroom on the first floor and 2 additional bedrooms on the second with attic room to expand. Walk out the back sliders to an acre of secluded land with Evergreen's surrounding the entire property., Additional information: Appearance:good

18. 2023-03-01
    listed $849,000 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Oh the privacy. Move right into the open concept cape. Bedroom on the first floor and 2 additional bedrooms on the second with attic room to expand. Walk out the back sliders to an acre of secluded land with Evergreen's surrounding the entire property., Additional information: Appearance:good

19. 1997-03-10
    soldstatus $920,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,038 · $670/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $16,060 · $1,338/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,022/yr (+$669/mo · 99.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $194,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$79,822
• − Property taxes: −$8,038
• − Insurance: −$7,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,571
• − Management: −$15,571
• − Depreciation: −$41,455
• Taxable income: $27,053
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,493
• After-tax cash flow: $42,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mattituck

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #8015

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mattituck, NY
• City population: 4,749
• Population (ZIP): 4,749

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.04%
• Current HPI: 453.8895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+54.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $1,425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Coming Soon $1,425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $818,750 Public Records
• 2023-05-16 Sold (MLS) $805,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-01 Listed $849,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $920,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,038 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.