1015 Seneca Falls Dr

Alafaya, FL 32828

$564,900D+

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,531 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,110/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,962
• Tax + insurance: −$679
• HOA: −$91
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$863
• Net cashflow: $-485/mo
• Annual: $-5,822/yr
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $158,172

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $565k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-485 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $479k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $411k (27.2% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($531k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $411k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Camelot Elementary (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 609 students, 51% FRL); Avalon Middle (math 70% / reading 69%, grade A, #66 of 571 statewide, top 12%, 911 students, 29% FRL); Timber Creek High (math 46% / reading 72%, grade C+, #113 of 667 statewide, top 17%, 3,573 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 56% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Orange average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 329 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 13 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $280k; list at $565k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.