COM1670-608 Plan

Callaway, FL 32404

$96,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 216 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,634/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,163
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$616
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-857/mo
• Annual: $-10,287/yr
• Cap rate: 1.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.57%
• DSCR: 0.26
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $62,087

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $96k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-857 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $96k).
• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#690 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Parker Elementary School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,951 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 496 students, 74% FRL); Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1544 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 4.6% in Callaway — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?