20 Seneca St

Fire Island, NY 11770

$1,385,000D+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,177 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 295 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,264/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,263
• Tax + insurance: −$944
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,315
• Net cashflow: $-3,258/mo
• Annual: $-39,097/yr
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.08%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $387,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $1.39M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-39k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $809k (41.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $626k (54.8% below list).
• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.22M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $626k (54.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $148k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $138k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#812 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fire Island Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #44 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $115k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $532k; list at $1.39M implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$238k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 0.7% in Fire Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.