20 Seneca St · Fire Island, NY 11770

$1,385,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,177 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 295 Days on market

Built 1970 4,792 sqft lot $1177/sqft · 29% above area Est $1700k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath beach home with loft, outdoor shower and hot tub! Perfectly situated on a sunny corner lot just one block from both the ocean and town, this home is the ultimate year-round getaway. Features include vaulted ceilings, a cozy wood-burning fireplace, a brand-new (2025) wraparound deck, hot tub, and a spacious loft for extra living or sleeping space. Fully furnished and designed with all the comforts of home, this property offers the ideal balance of coastal charm and modern convenience.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Outdoor shower
• Wraparound deck

Tags

• OUTDOOR SHOWER
• HOT TUB
• WRAPAROUND DECK
• COZY WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS LOFT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $1.39M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-39k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $809k (41.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $626k (54.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $626k (54.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 0.7% in Fire Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#812 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fire Island Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #44 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $148k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $138k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$238k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.22M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $115k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $532k; list at $1.39M implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $626,409 (54.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.08%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 18.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,700,000
• List price: $1,385,000
• Delta: -18.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $546,054
• Equity at exit: $1,247,718

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $1,769,744
• Equity at exit: $2,690,750

Cash invested: $387,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11770

• Home prices YoY: 13.7%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 18.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,264 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,263
• Tax from tax record: −$367 /mo · $4,399/yr
• Insurance: −$577
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,315
• Net cashflow: $-3,258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,388

Max offer price $809,445

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $346,250
• Closing costs: $41,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43 Crescent Ave Ocean Beach, NY	4.0	2.5	1400	$8,500	$6.07	15d	1	0.78mi
25 Atlantic Ave Ocean Beach, NY	3.0	1.5	960	$7,500	$7.81	19d	1	0.87mi
896 Evergreen Walk Ocean Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	960	$5,000	$5.21	44d	1	0.92mi
917 Evergreen Walk Ocean Beach, NY	3.0	1.5	1108	$5,500	$4.96	44d	1	0.94mi
437 Dehnhoff Walk Ocean Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1496	$6,000	$4.01	44d	1	1.02mi
317 Bay Walk Ocean Beach, NY	3.0	1.5	1000	$7,000	$7.00	44d	1	1.09mi
66 Bungalow Walk Ocean Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	1056	$40,000	$37.88	44d	1	1.10mi
40 Bungalow Walk Ocean Beach, NY	3.0	1.5	1045	$5,500	$5.26	44d	1	1.11mi
177 Wilmot Rd Ocean Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$4,500	$3.75	44d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 295 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 294 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 293 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 292 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 290 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 289 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 286 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 285 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,385,000 Active 284 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,385,000 Active 281 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,385,000 Active 280 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,385,000 Active 279 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,385,000 Active 278 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,385,000 Active 277 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    price $1,385,000 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Come see this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath beach home with loft, outdoor shower and hot tub! Perfectly situated on a sunny corner lot just one block from both the ocean and town, this home is the ultimate year-round getaway. Features include vaulted ceilings, a cozy wood-burning fireplace, a brand-new (2025) wraparound deck, hot tub, and a spacious loft for extra living or sleeping space. Fully furnished and designed with all the comforts of home, this property offers the ideal balance of coastal charm and modern convenience.

16. 2026-01-27
    status Active 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Come see this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath beach home with loft, outdoor shower and hot tub! Perfectly situated on a sunny corner lot just one block from both the ocean and town, this home is the ultimate year-round getaway. Features include vaulted ceilings, a cozy wood-burning fireplace, a brand-new (2025) wraparound deck, hot tub, and a spacious loft for extra living or sleeping space. Fully furnished and designed with all the comforts of home, this property offers the ideal balance of coastal charm and modern convenience.

17. 2026-01-27
    historical 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Come see this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath beach home with loft, outdoor shower and hot tub! Perfectly situated on a sunny corner lot just one block from both the ocean and town, this home is the ultimate year-round getaway. Features include vaulted ceilings, a cozy wood-burning fireplace, a brand-new (2025) wraparound deck, hot tub, and a spacious loft for extra living or sleeping space. Fully furnished and designed with all the comforts of home, this property offers the ideal balance of coastal charm and modern convenience.

18. 2025-08-26
    listed $1,500,000 Active 542-char remark

    Show marketing remark (542 chars)

    Come see this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath beach home with loft, outdoor shower and hot tub! Perfectly situated on a sunny corner lot just one block from both the ocean and town, this home is the ultimate year-round getaway. Features include vaulted ceilings, a cozy wood-burning fireplace, a brand-new (2025) wraparound deck, hot tub, and a spacious loft for extra living or sleeping space. Fully furnished and designed with all the comforts of home, this property offers the ideal balance of coastal charm and modern convenience.

19. 2016-04-07
    soldstatus $532,000
20. 2011-07-19
    soldstatus $620,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,399 · $367/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,903 · $1,159/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,504/yr (+$792/mo · 216.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $75,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$77,582
• − Property taxes: −$4,399
• − Insurance: −$6,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,014
• − Management: −$6,014
• − Depreciation: −$40,291
• Taxable loss: −$66,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15,853
• After-tax cash flow: $-23,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fire Island Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621540
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 90% ▲ 40.00%
• Median HH income: $69,449
• Composite: 71.53/100
• National rank: #222
• State rank: #44 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fire Island

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #812
• US rank: #15735

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety B User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fire Island, NY
• City population: 124
• Population (ZIP): 124

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 48% Two or more races 27%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 56% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.28%
• Current HPI: 575.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+123.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $1,385,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-26 Listed $1,500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $532,000 Public Records
• 2011-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $620,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,399 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.