9 Goshen St

Deer Park, NY 11729

$639,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,223/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,351
• Tax + insurance: −$616
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,097
• Net cashflow: $159/mo
• Annual: $1,904/yr
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $178,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $639k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $522k (18.3% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $522k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#216 in NY, #3,358 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Deer Park Union Free School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #181 of 590 in NY (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John F Kennedy Intermediate School (math 64% / reading 61%, grade B, #671 of 2,108 statewide, top 32%, 830 students, 44% FRL); Robert Frost Middle School (math 30% / reading 60%, grade D, #342 of 729 statewide, top 48%, 903 students, 49% FRL); Deer Park High School (math 95% / reading 57%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 1,314 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 28% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.0% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.