9 Goshen St · Deer Park, NY 11729

$639,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1968 7,492 sqft lot $323/sqft · 10% below area Est $808k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property being sold as.

Key facts

• 7,492 sq ft lot
• Built 1968
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fees (if any) include heat and hot water

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; No listed utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Full basement
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes appliances (other)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $639k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $522k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $522k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.0% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#216 in NY, #3,358 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Deer Park Union Free School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #181 of 590 in NY (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John F Kennedy Intermediate School (math 64% / reading 61%, grade B, #671 of 2,108 statewide, top 32%, 830 students, 44% FRL); Robert Frost Middle School (math 30% / reading 60%, grade D, #342 of 729 statewide, top 48%, 903 students, 49% FRL); Deer Park High School (math 95% / reading 57%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 1,314 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 28% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $522,256 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $807,964
• List price: $639,000
• Delta: -20.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Hawthorne St	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,020 (+2%)	5mo	$750,000	$371	81
109 Westwood Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,962 (-1%)	5mo	$730,000	$372	77
22 Jersey St	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,881 (-5%)	1mo	$781,500	$415	74
207 Eastwood Ave	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,854 (-6%)	6mo	$675,000	$364	72
118 Wright Ave	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,992 (+1%)	8mo	$680,000	$341	71
14 Osceola Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	2,000 (+1%)	6mo	$750,000	$375	70
190 Burlington Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,874 (-5%)	1mo	$552,500	$295	67
149 Osceola Ave	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,184 (+10%)	7mo	$742,500	$340	54
4 Susan Ct	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,045 (+4%)	9mo	$729,000	$356	52
2 Smith St	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,880 (-5%)	2mo	$793,000	$422	47
163 Albany St	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,746 (-12%)	8mo	$718,000	$411	44
47 Pearsall Pl	0.57mi	3/3.0	1,738 (-12%)	4mo	$704,000	$405	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-93,638
• Equity at exit: $95,277

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-69,328
• Equity at exit: $55,249

Cash invested: $178,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11729

• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,223 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,351
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,199/yr
• Insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,097
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,022

Max offer price $639,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $159,750
• Closing costs: $19,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
290 Eastwood Ave Deer Park, NY	4.0	2.5	2400	$7,000	$2.92	44d	1	0.28mi
601 Old Country Rd Deer Park, NY	4.0	1.0	1945	$4,000	$2.06	15d	1	0.48mi
335 Gillette St Dix Hills, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$3,650	$2.61	11d	1	0.58mi
23 Seaman Neck Rd Dix Hills, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	1d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 23-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $639,000 Active 23-char remark
3. 2026-04-27
   historical $639,000 23-char remark
4. 2024-03-19
   historical $1,850
5. 2024-02-17
   listed $1,850

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,199 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,499 · $625/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,300/yr (+$275/mo · 78.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,794
• − Property taxes: −$4,199
• − Insurance: −$3,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,014
• − Management: −$5,014
• − Depreciation: −$18,589
• Taxable loss: −$9,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,192
• After-tax cash flow: $4,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Park Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3608880
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $80,561
• Composite: 55.26/100
• National rank: #1268
• State rank: #181 of 590 in NY

Livability — Deer Park

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #3358

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deer Park, NY
• City population: 26,647
• Population (ZIP): 26,647

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 13% Black 12% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Armenian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 7% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -669.80%
• Current HPI: 285.3175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+34440.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $639,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Coming Soon $639,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-19 Rental Removed $1,850 ONEKEY
• 2024-02-17 Listed for Rent $1,850 ONEKEY

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,199 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.