527 Warren Rd

Northeast Ithaca, NY 14850

$430,000D-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 1969 · MultiFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,641/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$985
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $-1,153/mo
• Annual: $-13,840/yr
• Cap rate: 3.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.50%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $120,400

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (47.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (38.6% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $226k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#23 in NY, #432 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northeast School (math 77% / reading 67%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 385 students, 30% FRL); Dewitt Middle School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 478 students, 38% FRL); Ithaca Senior High School (math 95% / reading 95%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,341 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $202k; list at $430k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.