527 Warren Rd · Northeast Ithaca, NY 14850

$430,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1969 0.76 ac lot $239/sqft · at area comps Est $522k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent Northeast opportunity! This mid-century bi-level has 5 bedrooms, 2 full baths and is full of sunlight! Upper level has 3 bedrooms, 1 bath with beautiful cherry hardwood floors in living-dining room combo with a sliding door open to the private deck and fenced yard. Lower level has 2 bdrm, 1 bath with separate entrance, laundry and use of the garage. Fully leased through May 2027, but could be easily returned to single family home with guest suite, just unlock the door! Excellent location, one block away from schools, near medical campus, shopping, services, airport; on TCAT busline. 5 min drive to Cornell

Key facts

• Private deck
• Separate entrance
• Fenced yard

Tags

• MID-CENTURY BI-LEVEL
• CHERRY HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PRIVATE DECK
• FENCED YARD
• BRIGHT EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Green energy-efficient windows

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with storage and garage door opener; Gravel driveway; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable available; Gas water heater
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels / Two stories; Walk-out finished basement
• Construction: Built with aluminum siding, brick, frame, and stucco; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Sliding doors; Partial fencing; Asphalt roof; Near public transit; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring types
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Zoned heating; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Natural gas heating; Zoned cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Skylights; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry room in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (47.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (38.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#23 in NY, #432 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northeast School (math 77% / reading 67%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 385 students, 30% FRL); Dewitt Middle School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 478 students, 38% FRL); Ithaca Senior High School (math 95% / reading 95%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,341 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $202k; list at $430k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $226,255 (47.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.50%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $522,166
• List price: $430,000
• Delta: -17.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-136,901
• Equity at exit: $64,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-187,071
• Equity at exit: $37,179

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14850

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,641 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$806 /mo · $9,671/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $-1,153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,101

Max offer price $226,255

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $430,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $430,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $430,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $430,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $430,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $430,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $430,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $430,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $430,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $430,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $430,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $430,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $430,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $430,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $430,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $430,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $430,000 Active 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Excellent Northeast opportunity! This mid-century bi-level has 5 bedrooms, 2 full baths and is full of sunlight! Upper level has 3 bedrooms, 1 bath with beautiful cherry hardwood floors in living-dining room combo with a sliding door open to the private deck and fenced yard. Lower level has 2 bdrm, 1 bath with separate entrance, laundry and use of the garage. Fully leased through May 2027, but could be easily returned to single family home with guest suite, just unlock the door! Excellent location, one block away from schools, near medical campus, shopping, services, airport; on TCAT busline. 5 min drive to Cornell

18. 2026-05-07
    listed $430,000 Active 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    Excellent Northeast opportunity! This mid-century bi-level has 5 bedrooms, 2 full baths and is full of sunlight! Upper level has 3 bedrooms, 1 bath with beautiful cherry hardwood floors in living-dining room combo with a sliding door open to the private deck and fenced yard. Lower level has 2 bdrm, 1 bath with separate entrance, laundry and use of the garage. Fully leased through May 2027, but could be easily returned to single family home with guest suite, just unlock the door! Excellent location, one block away from schools, near medical campus, shopping, services, airport; on TCAT busline. 5 min drive to Cornell

19. 2025-10-09
    soldstatus $202,500
20. 2015-12-17
    soldstatus $247,000

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Open Saturday 1-3pm on 10/24. This like new duplex/ single family 5 bdrm, 2 full bath bi-level home is sunny, bright & in move in condition with so many new improvements (see document list). Upper level has 3 bdrms, 1 bath, 1 kitchen. Beautiful cherry hardwood floor in living dining room combo with a sliding door open to the deack. Lower level has 2 bdrm, 1 bath, 1 kitchen with separate entrance and was previously used as an apt. Excellent location, one block away from school, near airport, shopping, service. 5 min drive to cornell (also on bus line to cornell, shopping)

21. 2015-10-17
    listed $259,900

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Open Saturday 1-3pm on 10/24. This like new duplex/ single family 5 bdrm, 2 full bath bi-level home is sunny, bright & in move in condition with so many new improvements (see document list). Upper level has 3 bdrms, 1 bath, 1 kitchen. Beautiful cherry hardwood floor in living dining room combo with a sliding door open to the deack. Lower level has 2 bdrm, 1 bath, 1 kitchen with separate entrance and was previously used as an apt. Excellent location, one block away from school, near airport, shopping, service. 5 min drive to cornell (also on bus line to cornell, shopping)

22. 2006-04-18
    soldstatus $173,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,671 · $806/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,671 · $806/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$9,671
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,536
• − Management: −$2,536
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$21,792
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,230
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ithaca City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615570
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,528
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #1397
• State rank: #195 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northeast Ithaca

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #432

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northeast Ithaca, NY
• County: Tompkins County · 68,610 people
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,610
• Household income: $71,445
• Rent vs Own: 55.2% rent · 44.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5169.0

Population outlook (Tompkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,958 people
• By 2030: 118,774 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 125,927 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 133,599 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 156,759 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 169,896 · +49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Chinese 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tompkins

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.6) · D 75.3% · R 24.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.6 2020: D+49.2 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+39.8 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.59%
• Current HPI: 389.7215
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+148.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $430,000 IBRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $430,000 IBRMLS
• 2025-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $202,500 Public Records
• 2015-12-17 Sold (MLS) $247,000 IBRMLS
• 2015-10-17 Listed $259,900 IBRMLS
• 2006-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $173,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,671 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.