7071 Deer Lodge Cir #103

Jacksonville, FL 32256

$180,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · Built 2008 · Condo · Pending · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,804/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$532
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-181/mo
• Annual: $-2,166/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.30%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (17.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beauclerc Elementary School (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 689 students, 52% FRL); Southside Middle School (math 24% / reading 22%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 844 students, 57% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 513 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?