7071 Deer Lodge Cir #103 · Jacksonville, FL 32256

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · Condo public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2008 $532/mo HOA · 29% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 3BR/2BA condo with a 1-car garage, perfectly positioned on a stocked pond known for large bass, creating a rare and peaceful waterfront setting. Wood-look tile flooring flows through the family room, dining area, and both guest and primary bedrooms. The kitchen features 42'' cabinets and tile flooring, offering both style and durability. Community amenities include a clubhouse with pool, fitness center, and playground. Conveniently located just off JTB with restaurants within walking distance and quick access to Tinseltown and St. Johns Town Center for shopping, dining, and entertainment.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• 42 cabinets
• Waterfront setting

Tags

• WATERFRONT SETTING
• WOOD-LOOK TILE FLOORING
• 42 CABINETS
• CLUBHOUSE WITH POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is unfurnished
• Financial info: Association fee charged monthly
• HOA & community: Homeowners association membership; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pool, cable TV, maintenance of grounds and structure, pest control, security, and trash service; Monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage with garage door opener; Guest parking; 1 garage space
• Security: Security gate; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; Two-story building; Entry level: 1; Property is attached
• Construction: Fiber cement and frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Pond on the property; Security gate; Smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Primary bathroom with tub and shower; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (17.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beauclerc Elementary School (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 689 students, 52% FRL); Southside Middle School (math 24% / reading 22%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 844 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 513 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,108 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.30%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.58% appreciation · 0.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-34,064
• Equity at exit: $38,508

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-51,435
• Equity at exit: $36,362

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32256

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $654/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$532
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,032

Max offer price $148,108

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7061 Snowy Canyon Dr #110 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1230	$1,650	$1.34	7d	1	0.05mi
7061 Snowy Canyon Dr #110 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1230	$1,650	$1.34	13d	1	0.05mi
7032 Deer Lodge Cir #101 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,695	$1.26	4d	1	0.10mi
7032 Deer Lodge Cir #101 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,695	$1.26	10d	1	0.10mi
7047 Deer Lodge Cir #102 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,870	$1.46	3d	1	0.12mi
8196 Cabin Lake Cir #112 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,775	$1.21	3d	1	0.14mi
7151 Deerfoot Point Cir Unit 11-1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1557	$1,790	$1.15	12d	1	0.28mi
6898 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$2,145	$2.01	2d	20	0.31mi
7104 Stonelion Cir Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1456	$1,895	$1.30	14d	1	0.50mi
7930 Rondeau Dr E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,995	$1.21	13d	1	0.93mi
8300 Old Kings Rd S Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,190	$1.98	4d	18	0.98mi
4814 Windrush Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1622	$1,750	$1.08	13d	1	1.02mi
4814 Windrush Ln Unit A-4-E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1622	$1,750	$1.08	14d	1	1.02mi
8030 Old Kings Rd S Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	900	$1,979	$2.20	3d	13	1.09mi
4814 Kingsmeadow Ln Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1439	$1,500	$1.04	11d	1	1.11mi
6972 Golden Monarch Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1717	$1,895	$1.10	23d	1	1.11mi
7500 Powers Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	853	$1,950	$2.29	7d	19	1.14mi
8205 Kensington Sq Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1640	$2,100	$1.28	23d	1	1.17mi
4440 Naranja Dr S Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1513	$1,995	$1.32	13d	1	1.17mi
7738 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	960	$2,187	$2.28	1d	13	1.23mi
3979 Ornamental Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1660	$1,900	$1.14	23d	1	1.24mi
8130 Argentine Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1731	$1,660	$0.96	23d	1	1.25mi
7400 Powers Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	744	$1,392	$1.87	1d	34	1.27mi
6680 Bennett Creek Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,528	$1.43	1d	11	1.28mi
8290 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,600	$1.59	23d	5	1.29mi
8290 Gate Pkwy W Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	946	$1,450	$1.53	1d	8	1.29mi
3964 Field Daisy Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$1,850	$1.09	23d	1	1.30mi
4940 Brighton Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,995	$1.11	23d	1	1.33mi
4037 Conga St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1692	$2,100	$1.24	1d	1	1.34mi
7200 Powers Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	913	$1,743	$1.91	1d	24	1.37mi
4103 Crownwood Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1728	$2,055	$1.19	7d	1	1.41mi
8550 Goldeneye Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,900	$1.43	23d	1	1.44mi
4020 Bellcast Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1614	$2,400	$1.49	11d	1	1.44mi
8181 A C Skinner Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–3.0	1055	$3,262	$3.09	3d	40	1.48mi
3451 Buckhead Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1760	$2,113	$1.20	21d	1	1.48mi
3451 Buckhead Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1760	$2,113	$1.20	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $532 · $6,384/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-23
   price $180,000
4. 2026-02-20
   listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $654 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$840/yr (+$70/mo · 128.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$654
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − HOA: −$6,384
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$5,076
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,218
• After-tax cash flow: $-948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,192
• Household income: $73,570
• Rent vs Own: 61.3% rent · 38.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2706.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 18% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Current HPI: 216.5115
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.39%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-10 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $180,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $185,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $654 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.