10110 Winsford Oak Blvd #623

Carrollwood, FL 33624

$118,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 593 sqft · Built 1990 · Condo · Pending · 141 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,376/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax + insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$321
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-44/mo
• Annual: $-526/yr
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $33,040

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $118k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-526/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (6.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#150 in FL, #2,274 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D-.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $118k implies a 269% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?