10110 Winsford Oak Blvd #623 · Carrollwood, FL 33624

$118,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 593 sqft · Condo public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1990 $321/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gated third-floor 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in The Landings community in Carrollwood. The unit features an open floor plan with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, ceiling fans, and a spacious bedroom with a walk-in closet and access to a private balcony. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and an all-white appliance package. A screened porch provides additional outdoor living space with peaceful views. Community amenities include a pool, clubhouse, fitness center, and tennis courts. Centrally located near shopping, dining, and major roadways.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Private balcony

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• SCREENED PORCH
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-526/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (6.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#150 in FL, #2,274 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D-.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $118k implies a 269% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-25,728
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-40,707
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33624

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,701/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$321
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,431

Max offer price $110,262

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-10	+0% $-44	+5% $-77	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-98	+0% $-44	+5% $11	+10% $65
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-14	base $-44	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10114 Winsford Oak Blvd #525 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	738	$1,450	$1.96	25d	1	0.02mi
4107 Chatham Oak Ct #307 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	738	$1,250	$1.69	6d	1	0.06mi
4211 Chatham Oak Ct Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	665	$1,472	$2.21	0d	3	0.09mi
4302 Gunn Hwy Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$1,399	$1.71	0d	12	0.22mi
10453 Carrollbrook Cir Tampa, FL	—	1.0	543	$1,195	$2.20	4d	1	0.90mi
8603 Fancy Finch Dr Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	581	$1,200	$2.07	18d	1	0.91mi
4747 W Waters Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$1,515	$1.35	0d	33	0.96mi
3832 N Lake Dr #116 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	682	$1,600	$2.35	0d	1	1.01mi
8602 Champlain Ct Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	710	$1,225	$1.73	11d	1	1.01mi
8602 Champlain Ct #88 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	710	$1,225	$1.73	21d	1	1.05mi
11500 N Dale Mabry Hwy Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	759	$1,307	$1.72	0d	26	1.09mi
8605 Huron Ct #34 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	710	$1,500	$2.11	2d	1	1.10mi
8534 Channelview Cir Unit 8534 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,295	$2.25	18d	1	1.15mi
8534 Channelview Cir Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,295	$2.25	4d	1	1.15mi
4949 Marbrisa Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	839	$1,461	$1.74	0d	19	1.16mi
8730 N Himes Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	821	$1,156	$1.41	15d	15	1.17mi
3516 Grand Cayman Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,397	$1.44	0d	170	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $321 · $3,852/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-13
   price $125,000 558-char remark

   Show marketing remark (558 chars)

   Gated third-floor 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in The Landings community in Carrollwood. The unit features an open floor plan with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, ceiling fans, and a spacious bedroom with a walk-in closet and access to a private balcony. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and an all-white appliance package. A screened porch provides additional outdoor living space with peaceful views. Community amenities include a pool, clubhouse, fitness center, and tennis courts. Centrally located near shopping, dining, and major roadways.

2. 2026-01-29
   price $135,000 558-char remark

   Show marketing remark (558 chars)

   Gated third-floor 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in The Landings community in Carrollwood. The unit features an open floor plan with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, ceiling fans, and a spacious bedroom with a walk-in closet and access to a private balcony. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and an all-white appliance package. A screened porch provides additional outdoor living space with peaceful views. Community amenities include a pool, clubhouse, fitness center, and tennis courts. Centrally located near shopping, dining, and major roadways.

3. 2026-01-05
   listed $138,000 Active 558-char remark

   Show marketing remark (558 chars)

   Gated third-floor 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in The Landings community in Carrollwood. The unit features an open floor plan with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, ceiling fans, and a spacious bedroom with a walk-in closet and access to a private balcony. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and an all-white appliance package. A screened porch provides additional outdoor living space with peaceful views. Community amenities include a pool, clubhouse, fitness center, and tennis courts. Centrally located near shopping, dining, and major roadways.

4. 2013-06-03
   soldstatus $31,950
5. 2013-05-08
   soldstatus $31,950 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   Short Sale. Meticulously maintained condo in the community of the Landings. 1 bedroom 1 bath with washer and dryer hookup in the bathroom. Vinyl flooring in wet areas with carpet in the living area and bedroom. Screened in patio. Community features included a pool, recreational facility, fitness room, volleyball court, and tennis courts. Conveniently located minutes to Carrollwood and the airport, veterans expressway, shops, restaurants, and malls.

6. 2013-02-13
   listed $35,500 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   Short Sale. Meticulously maintained condo in the community of the Landings. 1 bedroom 1 bath with washer and dryer hookup in the bathroom. Vinyl flooring in wet areas with carpet in the living area and bedroom. Screened in patio. Community features included a pool, recreational facility, fitness room, volleyball court, and tennis courts. Conveniently located minutes to Carrollwood and the airport, veterans expressway, shops, restaurants, and malls.

7. 2005-11-27
   soldstatus $112,990
8. 2005-11-25
   listed $112,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,701 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,701 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$1,701
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − HOA: −$3,852
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable loss: −$2,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$556
• After-tax cash flow: $30/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Carrollwood

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #2274

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrollwood, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 40,533
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,346
• Household income: $87,760
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1812.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 20% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.75%
• Current HPI: 368.8474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.79%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+10.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listed $138,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $31,950 Public Records
• 2013-05-08 Sold (MLS) $31,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-13 Listed $35,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-27 Sold (MLS) $112,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-25 Listed $112,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,701 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.