4333 Pentz Rd #28

Paradise, CA 95969

$137,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 945 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,121/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax + insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-61/mo
• Annual: $-736/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $38,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $137k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-736/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (18.2% below list).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#541 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Golden Feather Union Elementary (rural): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,295 of 1,400 in CA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Concow Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,256 of 1,571 statewide, top 81%, 69 students, 96% FRL); Oroville High (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 936 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 72% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Golden Feather Union Elementary average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 607 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.4% in Paradise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.