Is 4333 Pentz Rd #28 in Paradise, CA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.8% cap rate and $-56/mo modeled cash flow at a $137,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 4333 Pentz Rd #28?

The modeled cap rate is 5.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,128/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 38.19

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +11.1/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Rent growth +4.1/5.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.2/10.0
DSCR +3.2/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Schools +2.8/10.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Manufactured-home adj. -3.3

$137,000

4333 Pentz Rd #28 · Paradise, CA 95969

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 945 sqft · Manufactured · 89 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2025 Good condition 4,500 sqft lot $145/sqft · 51% below area

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Sales Tax Included. Take advantage of 2 months free rent, beautiful views of the valley, generous lot sizes, wide concrete driveways and comfortable porches to enjoy the early mornings and evening sun sets. The Lime Saddle Mobile Home Park is an all ages community located just South of Paradise adjacent to the Sierra Del Sol Gated Community. This brand new 2025 Champion home features a spacious layout with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms at 945 square feet and comes with a full kitchen appliance package, carpet and linoleum flooring, and washer/dryer hook-ups. We even welcome your four-legged family members. Pet restrictions apply.

Key facts

Comfortable porches
Generous lot sizes
4,500 sq ft lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $137k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-671/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (5.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (17.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $113k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.3% in Paradise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 61/100 on livability (#541 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Golden Feather Union Elementary (rural): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,295 of 1,400 in CA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Concow Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,256 of 1,571 statewide, top 81%, 69 students, 96% FRL); Oroville High (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 936 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 72% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Golden Feather Union Elementary average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 560 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $947 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,770 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.82% ✗
Cap rate: 5.80%
Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
DSCR: 0.92
GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $279,000
List price: $137,000
Delta: -50.90%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5190 Edgewood Ln	1.94mi	2/2.0	947 (+0%)	3mo	$279,000	$295	62
5255 Xeno Pl	2.09mi	2/1.0	915 (-3%)	38mo	$325,000	$355	36
1983 Hillpark Ln	1.90mi	2/1.0	915 (-3%)	40mo	$310,000	$339	36
1575 La Grande Vue	2.17mi	2/2.0	1,214 (+28%)	6mo	$270,000	$222	35
5369 Pentz Rd	1.86mi	2/2.0	1,138 (+20%)	7mo	$325,000	$286	34
2250 Demille Rd	1.74mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+27%)	16mo	$395,000	$329	27
5200 Trafalgar Sq	1.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+27%)	15mo	$399,000	$333	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -15.5%
Equity multiple: 0.43×
Total profit: $-21,790
Equity at exit: $20,427

10-year hold

IRR: -2.0%
Equity multiple: 0.84×
Total profit: $-6,104
Equity at exit: $11,845

Cash invested: $38,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 1 active
Median asking: $143,000 ($129/sqft)
Median days on market: 72 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +129.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95969

Rents YoY: 6.4%
Active inventory: 560
Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,128 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$718
Tax est. 1.5%: −$171 /mo · $2,055/yr
Insurance: −$57
HOA: −$0
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,198

Max offer price $128,912

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $39	-5% $-9	+0% $-56	+5% $-103	+10% $-151
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-100	+0% $-56	+5% $-11	+10% $33
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-21	base $-56	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $34,250
Closing costs: $4,110
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Located on a private roadDirections available from Chico or OrovilleLiving area and year built sourced from sellerMobile dimensions approximately 23' x 44'Total of 1 story
Financial info: Land lease of $600 per month (park)
HOA & community: Part of an associationCommunity located in foothillsPark name: Lime Saddle MHPManager approval requiredPets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

Parking: DrivewayHas parkingLocated in Lime Saddle MHP (park)
Utilities: PropaneElectricity connectedPrivate sewerSewer connectedDistrict/public water
Home design: Single-storyEntry faces Pentz RoadMobile home model Elmore Bay (double-wide)Mobile home remains on site
Construction: Asphalt roof
Exterior features: PorchHas patioLandscaped lotCement board skirting

Interior

Kitchen: Quartz counters
Bedrooms: Entry level is 1
Flooring: CarpetLaminated
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central furnace heatingCentral cooling
Interior features: Crown moldingsHigh ceilings (9 feet+)Ceiling fanPantryTwo staircasesOpen floor planQuartz counters
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupHas laundry

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $137,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $137,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $137,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $137,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $137,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $137,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $137,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $137,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $137,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $137,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $137,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $137,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $137,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $137,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $137,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $137,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $137,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $137,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $137,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $137,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $137,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $137,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $137,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $137,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-08

days on market $137,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $137,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $137,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $137,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-04

days on market $137,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $137,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $137,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $137,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $137,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $137,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $137,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $137,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $137,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-25

days on market $137,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-06-23

days on market $137,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $137,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-19

days on market $137,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $137,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $137,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $137,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $137,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-14

days on market $137,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $137,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $137,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $137,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $137,000 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $13,532
− Mortgage interest: −$7,674
− Property taxes: −$2,055
− Insurance: −$685
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,083
− Management: −$1,083
− Depreciation: −$3,985
Taxable loss: −$3,032

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$728
After-tax cash flow: $57/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 21 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,725–$14,175 screening

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level and no visible repairs needed. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the exterior, replace the carpet with hardwood, and install smart home devices.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and value ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Concow Elementary F CA #1,256/1,571 Nat'l #33,508/41,679 High Oroville High F CA #578/1,170 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Golden Feather Union Elementary
NCES district ID: 0615480
Math proficiency: 11% ▬ 0.00%
Reading proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $36,377
Composite: 16.29/100
National rank: #14273
State rank: #1295 of 1400 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Paradise

Score: 61/100
State rank: #541
US rank: #18039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Butte County · 237,527 people
City population: 8,339
Metro: Chico, CA
Population (ZIP): 8,339
Household income: $69,067
Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 237,527 people
By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -410.40%
Current HPI: 102.8367
Rent YoY: ▲ 6.37%
Metro: Chico, CA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	27	$1,492B
#4 Apple Cupertino $391.0B #7 Alphabet Mountain View $350.0B #22 Meta Platforms Menlo Park $164.5B #31 NVIDIA Santa Clara $130.5B #83 Cisco Systems San Jose $53.8B #84 HP Inc Palo Alto $53.6B #86 Intel Santa Clara $53.1B #88 Broadcom Palo Alto $52.4B #109 Qualcomm San Diego $39.0B #112 Salesforce San Francisco $38.4B #140 Applied Materials Santa Clara $27.2B #155 AMD Santa Clara $22.7B #330 Intuit Mountain View $16.3B #242 Lam Research Fremont $15.8B #252 Western Digital San Jose $13.0B #366 ServiceNow Santa Clara $11.0B #282 KLA Corporation Milpitas $10.8B #405 Workday Pleasanton $7.9B #302 Arista Networks Santa Clara $6.7B #365 NetApp San Jose $6.5B #352 Synopsys Sunnyvale $6.1B #331 Autodesk San Francisco $6.0B #395 Juniper Networks Sunnyvale $5.6B #403 Cadence Design Systems San Jose $4.6B #430 Veeva Systems Pleasanton $2.4B #397 Teradata San Diego $1.8B #461 Dolby Laboratories San Francisco $1.3B
Financial Services	3	$174B
#33 Wells Fargo San Francisco $125.4B #272 Visa San Francisco $35.9B #308 LPL Financial Holdings San Diego $12.3B
Retail	3	$44B
#162 Ross Stores Dublin $20.9B #231 Gap San Francisco $15.6B #323 Williams-Sonoma San Francisco $7.7B
Insurance	3	$26B
#241 Pacific Life Newport Beach $13.4B #293 First American Financial Santa Ana $7.7B #482 Mercury General Los Angeles $5.2B
Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
#46 Walt Disney Burbank $91.4B #263 Live Nation Entertainment Beverly Hills $23.2B
Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B
#126 Amgen Thousand Oaks $33.3B #137 Gilead Sciences Foster City $28.4B

Price history

+6.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-05-29 Price Changed $137,000 CRMLS
2026-05-11 Listed $129,000 CRMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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