12500 Sandpiper Dr #179

Houston, TX 77035

$49,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 966 sqft · Built 1981 · Condo · Active · 259 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,011/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax + insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$462
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $-108/mo
• Annual: $-1,292/yr
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.61%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 2.06%
• Cash to close: $13,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $49k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $30k (38.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $30k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Foerster El (math 14% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,805 of 4,322 statewide, top 89%, 617 students, 98% FRL); Fondren Middle (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 840 students, 99% FRL); Westbury H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,243 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 46% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 203 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 4355% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?