240 Main St

North Creek, NY 12853

$275,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · Built 1939 · SingleFamily · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $34,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$495
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,308
• Net cashflow: $25,555/mo
• Annual: $306,657/yr
• Cap rate: 117.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 398.26%
• DSCR: 18.72
• 1% rule: 12.65%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26k ($307k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($35k rent vs $275k).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#683 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Johnsburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #521 of 755 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $275k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 117.8% vs local median 2.3% in North Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.