240 Main St · North Creek, NY 12853

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1939 3,920 sqft lot Est $229k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Perfect Gore Mountain ski house on Main Street in North Creek! Ready to move right-in, all fully furnished and equipped with comfortable furnishing, kitchen items, w/ d, ect. Excellent primary residence in the Johnsburg School District: students have complimentary ski privileges!

Key facts

• Fully furnished
• 3,920 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots

Tags

• GORE MOUNTAIN SKI HOUSE
• FULLY FURNISHED
• JOHNSBURG SCHOOL DISTRICT
• COMPLIMENTARY SKI PRIVILEGES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26k ($307k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($35k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $258k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 117.8% vs local median 2.3% in North Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#683 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Johnsburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #521 of 755 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $275k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $258,499 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 12.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 117.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 398.26%
• DSCR: 18.72
• GRM: 0.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,362
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Marion Ave	0.32mi	4/1.5	1,788 (+1%)	4mo	$235,000	$131	79
259 Main St	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,649 (-7%)	7mo	$210,000	$127	78
12 Ordway Ln	0.09mi	4/3.0	1,900 (+7%)	12mo	$245,000	$129	70
25 Fairview Ave	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,968 (+11%)	15mo	$300,002	$152	58
8 Byrd Pond Rd	0.36mi	4/1.0	1,883 (+6%)	20mo	$83,000	$44	52
74 Main St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-6%)	3mo	$182,500	$109	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.09×
• Total profit: $1,777,914
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 52.39×
• Total profit: $3,956,824
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12853

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 0.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $34,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,567/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,308
• Net cashflow: $25,555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,452

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 22%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25,710	-5% $25,633	+0% $25,555	+5% $25,477	+10% $25,399
Rent	-10% $22,806	-5% $24,180	+0% $25,555	+5% $26,929	+10% $28,304
Rate	-1.0pp $25,693	-0.5pp $25,625	base $25,555	+0.5pp $25,483	+1.0pp $25,411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Ordway Ln North Creek, NY	4.0	3.0	1900	$34,800	$18.32	45d	1	0.07mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-14
   historical Contingent
3. 2025-09-16
   listed $275,000 Active
4. 2017-06-27
   soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,567 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,607 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: +$40/yr (+$3/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $417,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,567
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$33,408
• − Management: −$33,408
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $321,438
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$77,145
• After-tax cash flow: $229,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnsburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615870
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,308
• Composite: 42.4/100
• National rank: #6915
• State rank: #521 of 755 in NY

Livability — North Creek

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #683
• US rank: #12939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Creek, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,384

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.16%
• Current HPI: 310.7228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+120.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-10-14 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $275,000 Global MLS
• 2017-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,567 · +61.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.