121 Independence Ln

Valley Forge, TN 37643

$10,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,986 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,398/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax + insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $1,035/mo
• Annual: $12,424/yr
• Cap rate: 130.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 443.71%
• DSCR: 20.74
• 1% rule: 13.98%
• Cash to close: $2,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $10k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $10k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $69 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $300 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carter County (suburban): math 16% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #119 of 139 in TN (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Valley Forge Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 202 students, 0% FRL); Hampton High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #197 of 332 statewide, top 60%, 439 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 184 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.