121 Independence Ln · Valley Forge, TN 37643

$10,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,986 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1974

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Estate Sale! Family home in Colonial Acres. Gorgeous over sized lot with lush landscaping and beautifully treed. Split Foyer designed home, well maintained by the long time owner. Entry foyer. Large living room with fireplace. Massive kitchen with all appliances conveying. Patio doors off dining area lead out to a private deck which overlooks the back yard. Three main level bedrooms and two full baths. The lower level features a huge den with brick corner fireplace with gas logs, fourth bedroom, 1/2 bath and laundry. Two car drive in garage with remote entries. Central heating and air conditioning. Updated metal roof and replacement windows. Dead end street location minimizes drive by traffic. A wonderful family home in a well established neighborhood. Just minutes from downtown Elizabethton. All info. taken from Tax Records. Buyer/Buyer's Agent to verify all.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Over sized lot
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• OVER SIZED LOT
• LUSH LANDSCAPING
• TOTALLY REMODELED KITCHEN
• CUSTOM HARDWOOD CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• PRIVATE DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Landscaping maintained by association

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Asphalt parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence (residential property)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; House structure type; Built with a partially finished below-grade area
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Level topography; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Partially finished basement; 2 fireplaces with gas logs (located in den and living room)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $10,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$349,536) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $10k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carter County (suburban): math 16% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #119 of 139 in TN (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Valley Forge Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 202 students, 0% FRL); Hampton High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #197 of 332 statewide, top 60%, 439 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 184 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $69 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $300 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $9,850 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 13.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 130.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 443.71%
• DSCR: 20.74
• GRM: 0.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,536
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Independence Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,986 (0%)	1mo	$246,950	$124	98
107 Asher Ct	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,932 (-3%)	0mo	$450,000	$233	76
108 Saratoga Cir	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,186 (+10%)	2mo	$299,967	$137	76
114 Revere Cir	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,248 (+13%)	3mo	$285,000	$127	65
106 Revere Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (-10%)	1mo	$360,000	$202	65
133 Bishop Cir	0.31mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,154 (+8%)	4mo	$400,000	$186	63
157 Coal Chute Rd	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,040 (+3%)	12mo	$229,500	$113	53
157 Consitution Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,192 (+10%)	24mo	$385,000	$176	47
2600 Stateline Road Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-9%)	6mo	$275,000	$153	41
124 Earl Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-12%)	23mo	$350,000	$200	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.98×
• Total profit: $64,340
• Equity at exit: $1,491

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 51.36×
• Total profit: $141,020
• Equity at exit: $865

Cash invested: $2,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37643

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 0.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$12 /mo · $150/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $1,035

Break-even live

Break-even rent $87

Max offer price $10,000

Occupancy floor 21%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,042	-5% $1,039	+0% $1,035	+5% $1,032	+10% $1,028
Rent	-10% $925	-5% $980	+0% $1,035	+5% $1,091	+10% $1,146
Rate	-1.0pp $1,040	-0.5pp $1,038	base $1,035	+0.5pp $1,033	+1.0pp $1,030

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,500
• Closing costs: $300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1541 Southside Rd Apt 4 Elizabethton, TN	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,398	$1.08	14d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $10,000 Active
3. 2020-06-26
   soldstatus $154,900 874-char remark

   Show marketing remark (874 chars)

   Estate Sale! Family home in Colonial Acres. Gorgeous over sized lot with lush landscaping and beautifully treed. Split Foyer designed home, well maintained by the long time owner. Entry foyer. Large living room with fireplace. Massive kitchen with all appliances conveying. Patio doors off dining area lead out to a private deck which overlooks the back yard. Three main level bedrooms and two full baths. The lower level features a huge den with brick corner fireplace with gas logs, fourth bedroom, 1/2 bath and laundry. Two car drive in garage with remote entries. Central heating and air conditioning. Updated metal roof and replacement windows. Dead end street location minimizes drive by traffic. A wonderful family home in a well established neighborhood. Just minutes from downtown Elizabethton. All info. taken from Tax Records. Buyer/Buyer's Agent to verify all.

4. 2020-06-26
   soldstatus $154,900

   Show marketing remark (874 chars)

   Estate Sale! Family home in Colonial Acres. Gorgeous over sized lot with lush landscaping and beautifully treed. Split Foyer designed home, well maintained by the long time owner. Entry foyer. Large living room with fireplace. Massive kitchen with all appliances conveying. Patio doors off dining area lead out to a private deck which overlooks the back yard. Three main level bedrooms and two full baths. The lower level features a huge den with brick corner fireplace with gas logs, fourth bedroom, 1/2 bath and laundry. Two car drive in garage with remote entries. Central heating and air conditioning. Updated metal roof and replacement windows. Dead end street location minimizes drive by traffic. A wonderful family home in a well established neighborhood. Just minutes from downtown Elizabethton. All info. taken from Tax Records. Buyer/Buyer's Agent to verify all.

5. 2020-05-13
   listed $159,900 874-char remark

   Show marketing remark (874 chars)

   Estate Sale! Family home in Colonial Acres. Gorgeous over sized lot with lush landscaping and beautifully treed. Split Foyer designed home, well maintained by the long time owner. Entry foyer. Large living room with fireplace. Massive kitchen with all appliances conveying. Patio doors off dining area lead out to a private deck which overlooks the back yard. Three main level bedrooms and two full baths. The lower level features a huge den with brick corner fireplace with gas logs, fourth bedroom, 1/2 bath and laundry. Two car drive in garage with remote entries. Central heating and air conditioning. Updated metal roof and replacement windows. Dead end street location minimizes drive by traffic. A wonderful family home in a well established neighborhood. Just minutes from downtown Elizabethton. All info. taken from Tax Records. Buyer/Buyer's Agent to verify all.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$560
• − Property taxes: −$150
• − Insurance: −$50
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − Depreciation: −$291
• Taxable income: $13,041
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,130
• After-tax cash flow: $9,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carter County
• NCES district ID: 4700510
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $33,744
• Composite: 15.92/100
• National rank: #9253
• State rank: #119 of 139 in TN

Livability — Valley Forge

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 33,690

Population outlook (Carter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,493 people
• By 2030: 52,639 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 47,929 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 42,877 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 31,487 · -42.2%
• By 2100: 21,979 · -59.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Carter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.2) · D 17.9% · R 81.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.1pp toward R · 2008: -47.2pp · 2024: -63.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.2 2020: R+61.5 2016: R+64.0 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+47.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.08%
• Current HPI: 321.4024
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-93.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $10,000 TVRMLS
• 2020-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $154,900 Public Records
• 2020-06-26 Sold (MLS) $154,900 TVRMLS
• 2020-05-13 Listed $159,900 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $851 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.