12357 E Black Rock Rd

Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$1,595,000D-

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 2,810 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,343/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,364
• Tax + insurance: −$938
• HOA: −$891
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$912
• Net cashflow: $-6,762/mo
• Annual: $-81,142/yr
• Cap rate: 1.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.17%
• DSCR: 0.19
• 1% rule: 0.27%
• Cash to close: $446,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $1.59M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-81k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $400k (74.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $434k (72.8% below list).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $400k (74.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $101k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $90k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 720 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$162k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.2% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($141k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 75% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.