12357 E Black Rock Rd · Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$1,595,000

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 2,810 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 2022 8,044 sqft lot $568/sqft · 15% below area Est $1870k · 15% under $891/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.8/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOWEST PRICED Villa! Seller wants an OFFER! MOVE-IN READY! Premier guard gated Scottsdale community with resort style amenities. This Villa lives like brand new with after market upgrades including landscaping, TVs & blinds plus the Restoration Hardware furniture is available on a separate bill of sale. Quality construction with desirable great room floor plan that boasts plank tile flooring, a floor to ceiling tiled gas fireplace and stackable door to the patio for easy indoor/outdoor living. The upgraded kitchen will not disappoint with floor to ceiling cabinetry, Wolf/Sub-Zero appliance package and oversized center island. The Primary suite is split from the other 3 bedrooms. The ensuite secondary has an attached sitting room and is perfect for short of long term guests The backyard is low maintenance with synthetic grass. Enjoy mountain views from the covered patio and great location, as this home is just a quick, 5 minute walk to the Mountain House Lodge (Community Center) which features a restaurant, fitness center, locker room with steam and sauna, 2 resort like pools and spa. If you love nature, you will enjoy all the rock outcroppings and walking trails within the community as well as easy access to Scottsdale's world class hiking and mountain biking trails at Tom's Thumb, Granite Mountain and Brown's Ranch Trailheads. Let's not forget Golf, as the Troon North Course is just a 10 minute drive, as well as others like Grayhawk, Legend Trail and Rancho Manana are less than 30 minutes.

Key facts

• 8,044 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $1.59M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-81k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $400k (74.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $434k (72.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $400k (74.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.2% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 720 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($141k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $101k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $90k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$162k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $400,494 (74.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 75% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.27% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.17%
• DSCR: 0.19
• GRM: 30.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,870,117
• List price: $1,595,000
• Delta: -14.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23852 N 123rd Pl	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,810 (0%)	1mo	$1,575,000	$560	84
12308 E Black Rock Rd	0.10mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,860 (+2%)	9mo	$1,888,000	$660	74
12314 E Black Rock Rd	0.10mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,860 (+2%)	9mo	$1,900,000	$664	74
12320 E Black Rock Rd	0.08mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,860 (+2%)	13mo	$1,730,000	$605	71
23749 N 127th St	0.37mi	4/3.5	2,785 (-1%)	5mo	$1,670,000	$600	71
12328 E Black Rock Rd	0.14mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,860 (+2%)	11mo	$1,825,000	$638	70
23750 N 126th Pl	0.23mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,860 (+2%)	6mo	$1,888,000	$660	70
23721 N 123rd Pl	0.07mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,854 (+2%)	17mo	$1,525,000	$534	69
23853 N 123rd Pl	0.14mi	4/3.5	2,785 (-1%)	21mo	$1,824,995	$655	68
23788 N 123rd Way	0.11mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,785 (-1%)	20mo	$1,672,275	$600	66
23686 N 126th Pl	0.23mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,124 (+11%)	3mo	$1,725,000	$552	57
24062 N 123rd Ct	0.23mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,475 (-12%)	19mo	$1,600,000	$646	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.64% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $1,535
• Equity at exit: $966,340

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $364,170
• Equity at exit: $1,721,871

Cash invested: $446,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85255

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 720
• Price-to-rent: 30.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,343 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,364
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,276/yr
• Insurance: −$665
• HOA: −$891
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$912
• Net cashflow: $-6,762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,902

Max offer price $400,494

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $398,750
• Closing costs: $47,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12387 E Black Rock Rd Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	3231	$6,000	$1.86	16d	1	0.09mi
23634 N 125th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	2705	$10,995	$4.06	1d	1	0.17mi
11934 E Sand Hills Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3437	$6,500	$1.89	14d	1	0.71mi
13020 E De la O Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	4.0	3200	$20,000	$6.25	1d	1	0.93mi
11741 E Parkview Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2879	$12,500	$4.34	1d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $891 · $10,692/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscapingpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-04-30
    price $1,595,000 1519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1519 chars)

    LOWEST PRICED Villa! Seller wants an OFFER! MOVE-IN READY! Premier guard gated Scottsdale community with resort style amenities. This Villa lives like brand new with after market upgrades including landscaping, TVs & blinds plus the Restoration Hardware furniture is available on a separate bill of sale. Quality construction with desirable great room floor plan that boasts plank tile flooring, a floor to ceiling tiled gas fireplace and stackable door to the patio for easy indoor/outdoor living. The upgraded kitchen will not disappoint with floor to ceiling cabinetry, Wolf/Sub-Zero appliance package and oversized center island. The Primary suite is split from the other 3 bedrooms. The ensuite secondary has an attached sitting room and is perfect for short of long term guests The backyard is low maintenance with synthetic grass. Enjoy mountain views from the covered patio and great location, as this home is just a quick, 5 minute walk to the Mountain House Lodge (Community Center) which features a restaurant, fitness center, locker room with steam and sauna, 2 resort like pools and spa. If you love nature, you will enjoy all the rock outcroppings and walking trails within the community as well as easy access to Scottsdale's world class hiking and mountain biking trails at Tom's Thumb, Granite Mountain and Brown's Ranch Trailheads. Let's not forget Golf, as the Troon North Course is just a 10 minute drive, as well as others like Grayhawk, Legend Trail and Rancho Manana are less than 30 minutes.

12. 2026-03-08
    price $1,650,000 1519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1519 chars)

    LOWEST PRICED Villa! Seller wants an OFFER! MOVE-IN READY! Premier guard gated Scottsdale community with resort style amenities. This Villa lives like brand new with after market upgrades including landscaping, TVs & blinds plus the Restoration Hardware furniture is available on a separate bill of sale. Quality construction with desirable great room floor plan that boasts plank tile flooring, a floor to ceiling tiled gas fireplace and stackable door to the patio for easy indoor/outdoor living. The upgraded kitchen will not disappoint with floor to ceiling cabinetry, Wolf/Sub-Zero appliance package and oversized center island. The Primary suite is split from the other 3 bedrooms. The ensuite secondary has an attached sitting room and is perfect for short of long term guests The backyard is low maintenance with synthetic grass. Enjoy mountain views from the covered patio and great location, as this home is just a quick, 5 minute walk to the Mountain House Lodge (Community Center) which features a restaurant, fitness center, locker room with steam and sauna, 2 resort like pools and spa. If you love nature, you will enjoy all the rock outcroppings and walking trails within the community as well as easy access to Scottsdale's world class hiking and mountain biking trails at Tom's Thumb, Granite Mountain and Brown's Ranch Trailheads. Let's not forget Golf, as the Troon North Course is just a 10 minute drive, as well as others like Grayhawk, Legend Trail and Rancho Manana are less than 30 minutes.

13. 2026-02-10
    price $1,685,000 1519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1519 chars)

    LOWEST PRICED Villa! Seller wants an OFFER! MOVE-IN READY! Premier guard gated Scottsdale community with resort style amenities. This Villa lives like brand new with after market upgrades including landscaping, TVs & blinds plus the Restoration Hardware furniture is available on a separate bill of sale. Quality construction with desirable great room floor plan that boasts plank tile flooring, a floor to ceiling tiled gas fireplace and stackable door to the patio for easy indoor/outdoor living. The upgraded kitchen will not disappoint with floor to ceiling cabinetry, Wolf/Sub-Zero appliance package and oversized center island. The Primary suite is split from the other 3 bedrooms. The ensuite secondary has an attached sitting room and is perfect for short of long term guests The backyard is low maintenance with synthetic grass. Enjoy mountain views from the covered patio and great location, as this home is just a quick, 5 minute walk to the Mountain House Lodge (Community Center) which features a restaurant, fitness center, locker room with steam and sauna, 2 resort like pools and spa. If you love nature, you will enjoy all the rock outcroppings and walking trails within the community as well as easy access to Scottsdale's world class hiking and mountain biking trails at Tom's Thumb, Granite Mountain and Brown's Ranch Trailheads. Let's not forget Golf, as the Troon North Course is just a 10 minute drive, as well as others like Grayhawk, Legend Trail and Rancho Manana are less than 30 minutes.

14. 2026-01-03
    listed $1,700,000 Active 1519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1519 chars)

    LOWEST PRICED Villa! Seller wants an OFFER! MOVE-IN READY! Premier guard gated Scottsdale community with resort style amenities. This Villa lives like brand new with after market upgrades including landscaping, TVs & blinds plus the Restoration Hardware furniture is available on a separate bill of sale. Quality construction with desirable great room floor plan that boasts plank tile flooring, a floor to ceiling tiled gas fireplace and stackable door to the patio for easy indoor/outdoor living. The upgraded kitchen will not disappoint with floor to ceiling cabinetry, Wolf/Sub-Zero appliance package and oversized center island. The Primary suite is split from the other 3 bedrooms. The ensuite secondary has an attached sitting room and is perfect for short of long term guests The backyard is low maintenance with synthetic grass. Enjoy mountain views from the covered patio and great location, as this home is just a quick, 5 minute walk to the Mountain House Lodge (Community Center) which features a restaurant, fitness center, locker room with steam and sauna, 2 resort like pools and spa. If you love nature, you will enjoy all the rock outcroppings and walking trails within the community as well as easy access to Scottsdale's world class hiking and mountain biking trails at Tom's Thumb, Granite Mountain and Brown's Ranch Trailheads. Let's not forget Golf, as the Troon North Course is just a 10 minute drive, as well as others like Grayhawk, Legend Trail and Rancho Manana are less than 30 minutes.

15. 2026-01-03
    price $1,700,000 1519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1519 chars)

    LOWEST PRICED Villa! Seller wants an OFFER! MOVE-IN READY! Premier guard gated Scottsdale community with resort style amenities. This Villa lives like brand new with after market upgrades including landscaping, TVs & blinds plus the Restoration Hardware furniture is available on a separate bill of sale. Quality construction with desirable great room floor plan that boasts plank tile flooring, a floor to ceiling tiled gas fireplace and stackable door to the patio for easy indoor/outdoor living. The upgraded kitchen will not disappoint with floor to ceiling cabinetry, Wolf/Sub-Zero appliance package and oversized center island. The Primary suite is split from the other 3 bedrooms. The ensuite secondary has an attached sitting room and is perfect for short of long term guests The backyard is low maintenance with synthetic grass. Enjoy mountain views from the covered patio and great location, as this home is just a quick, 5 minute walk to the Mountain House Lodge (Community Center) which features a restaurant, fitness center, locker room with steam and sauna, 2 resort like pools and spa. If you love nature, you will enjoy all the rock outcroppings and walking trails within the community as well as easy access to Scottsdale's world class hiking and mountain biking trails at Tom's Thumb, Granite Mountain and Brown's Ranch Trailheads. Let's not forget Golf, as the Troon North Course is just a 10 minute drive, as well as others like Grayhawk, Legend Trail and Rancho Manana are less than 30 minutes.

16. 2025-02-21
    historical
17. 2024-10-02
    historical $7,500
18. 2024-10-01
    listed $1,899,000 Active
19. 2024-08-14
    listed $7,500
20. 2024-07-21
    historical
21. 2024-03-04
    listed $2,000,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,527 · $877/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,251/yr (+$604/mo · 221.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,345
• − Property taxes: −$3,276
• − Insurance: −$7,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,169
• − Management: −$4,169
• − HOA: −$10,692
• − Depreciation: −$46,400
• Taxable loss: −$113,909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$27,338
• After-tax cash flow: $-53,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 45,346
• Household income: $140,616
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.64%
• Current HPI: 330.9931
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-20.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $1,595,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $1,650,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $1,685,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed $1,700,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $1,700,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Rental Removed $7,500 ARMLS
• 2024-10-01 Listed $1,899,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-14 Listed for Rent $7,500 ARMLS
• 2024-07-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-03-04 Listed $2,000,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+105.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,276 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.