123 Shepard Ln

Stamford, NY 12474

$129,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,518 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,248/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$334
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $-24/mo
• Annual: $-289/yr
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-289/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (3.2% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#574 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Roxbury Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #668 of 755 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.3% in Stamford — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.