123 Shepard Ln · Stamford, NY 12474

$129,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,518 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1900 0.39 ac lot $85/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The property is located on the access road to Shepard Hills Golf Course! This is a classic fixer upper with many possibilities!! Renovations for this historic property have been started. This house was formerly the caretaker residence for the Shepard Estate. Located within the Hamlet of Roxbury and only a few steps away from the Historic Kirkside Park. The interior is a clean slate with much of the demo work and structural upgrades completed. Interior work includes a new electric panel and extensive rewiring that is still mostly in the rough in stage. There is a partially finished working bathroom on the first floor. Rough in plumbing has been started to second bath and kitchen. A new Metal

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Historic property
• New electric panel

Tags

• HISTORIC PROPERTY
• NEW ELECTRIC PANEL
• EXTENSIVE REWIRING
• ROUGH IN PLUMBING STARTED
• NEW METAL ROOF
• EXTERIOR DOORS REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Trails/paths nearby

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity available and connected (circuit breakers); High-speed internet available; Septic tank; Spring water source
• Home design: 2-story home; Existing (previously built)
• Construction: Frame construction; PEX plumbing; Metal roof; Stone foundation; Has basement with dirt floor, partial finish, and walk-out access
• Exterior features: Deck; Dirt driveway; Propane tank (leased); River access and stream frontage; On golf course; Irregular lot; Right-of-way road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wood heating; Space heater; Has heating
• Interior features: Den and separate/formal living room; Bathroom rough-in; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer and dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-289/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.3% in Stamford — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#574 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Roxbury Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #668 of 755 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,739 (3.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,990
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -60.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $16,832
• Equity at exit: $60,915

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $58,884
• Equity at exit: $96,206

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12474

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,693/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,279

Max offer price $124,739

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $12	+0% $-24	+5% $-61	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-73	+0% $-24	+5% $25	+10% $74
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $9	base $-24	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $129,000 Active 798-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,693 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,693 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥87°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$2,693
• − Insurance: −$1,312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,198
• − Management: −$1,198
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$2,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$576
• After-tax cash flow: $287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roxbury Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625110
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $47,744
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #10038
• State rank: #668 of 755 in NY

Livability — Stamford

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #574
• US rank: #10332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 891

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Romanian 6% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.40%
• Current HPI: 438.8421
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $129,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,693 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.