8286 Lockman St

Winona, MO 65588

$129,900C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,196 sqft · Built 1960 · Other · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,299/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $254/mo
• Annual: $3,051/yr
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.39%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $254 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#808 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Winona R-III (rural): math 37% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #131 of 324 in MO (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Winona Elem. (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #469 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 299 students, 78% FRL); Winona High (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #318 of 521 statewide, top 61%, 142 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP.
• Shannon County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.