8286 Lockman St · Winona, MO 65588

$129,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,196 sqft · Other public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1960 0.86 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3/4 Bedroom, 2 Bath Home on Corner Lot in Winona, MissouriCharming and spacious home located within walking distance of Winona Schools. This property features original hardwood floors in several rooms, a large family room or optional fourth bedroom, central AC and propane heat, and a fireplace for added comfort. The screened front porch with handicap ramp, back patio, and large fenced backyard offer great outdoor living spaces. Additional highlights include a metal roof, stainless steel side-by-side refrigerator, stove, large utility room with a cellar, and a beautifully landscaped front yard with mature flowers. Situated on a fenced in corner lot. Just ten minutes from Rocky Falls, a beaut

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• Large family room
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• BACK PATIO
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available for utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Front porch; Screened porch; Chain link fencing; Corner lot; Has view; Asphalt road frontage on a public maintained city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Free-standing electric oven; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Laminate floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central heating; Fireplace(s); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Living room fireplace; Ceiling fans; Has central air
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $254 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#808 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Winona R-III (rural): math 37% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #131 of 324 in MO (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Winona Elem. (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #469 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 299 students, 78% FRL); Winona High (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #318 of 521 statewide, top 61%, 142 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Shannon County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.39%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.74% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $51,625
• Equity at exit: $79,515

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $139,621
• Equity at exit: $142,380

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65588

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $444/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $978

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $129,900 Active 1035-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $444 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$816/yr (+$68/mo · 183.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$444
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $950
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$228
• After-tax cash flow: $2,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winona R-III
• NCES district ID: 2932220
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $31,522
• Composite: 34.76/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #131 of 324 in MO

Livability — Winona

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #808
• US rank: #24256

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winona, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,025

Population outlook (Shannon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,703 people
• By 2030: 7,355 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 6,637 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 5,898 · -23.4%
• By 2075: 4,407 · -42.8%
• By 2100: 3,037 · -60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shannon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.3) · D 15.6% · R 83.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -56.9pp toward R · 2008: -11.4pp · 2024: -68.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.3 2020: R+63.0 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+26.0 2008: R+11.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.74%
• Current HPI: 160.0993
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $129,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $444 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.