21 Center St

Highland Falls, NY 10928

$289,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 965 sqft · Built 1870 · SingleFamily · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,314/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$819
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-507/mo
• Annual: $-6,080/yr
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.69%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-507 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (31.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (19.9% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (9.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#335 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Highland Falls Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #328 of 590 in NY (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $110k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $210k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?