420 Taraval St

San Francisco, CA 94116

$1,575,000C

8 bd · 6.0 ba · 4,400 sqft · Built 1971 · MultiFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $16,569/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,259
• Tax + insurance: −$2,518
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,479
• Net cashflow: $2,313/mo
• Annual: $27,750/yr
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.29%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $441,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $1.57M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive. Per door: $578/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $1.57M).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.55M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.55M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $47k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 48 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $16,569/mo this rent would consume 125% of the median local household income ($159k/yr) (locally 655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.