1779 W Creek Rd

Newark Valley, NY 13811

$79,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1986 · Manufactured · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $925/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $205/mo
• Annual: $2,458/yr
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.99%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($925 rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#462 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Owego-Apalachin Central School District (town): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #204 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 139 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tioga County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.