8203 W South Trails Dr

Columbia, MO 65202

$135,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,634/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $386/mo
• Annual: $4,634/yr
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.26%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Columbia 93 (urban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Midway Heights Elem. (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 261 students, 22% FRL); Smithton Middle (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #149 of 391 statewide, top 41%, 521 students, 26% FRL); David H. Hickman High (math 27% / reading 55%, grade F, #236 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 2,044 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.