8203 W South Trails Dr · Columbia, MO 65202

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1977 0.66 ac lot $104/sqft · 8% below area Est $230k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Want new without the price tag of new? Remodeled home with stainless steel appliances to be installed end of May. New carpet, paint and tile flooring throughout. Large garage and workshop. Quiet area and great school. This is a must see. Buyers to verify all information.

Key facts

• Value-add potential
• Spacious layout
• Fixer-upper

Tags

• TRAILS WEST SUBDIVISION
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• STRONG RESALE POTENTIAL
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• FIXER-UPPER
• VALUE-ADD POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached paved garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Faces east
• Construction: No additional structures
• Exterior features: Deck; Chain link fence enclosing backyard; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range; Dishwasher; Exhaust fan; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Columbia 93 (urban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Midway Heights Elem. (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 261 students, 22% FRL); Smithton Middle (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #149 of 391 statewide, top 41%, 521 students, 26% FRL); David H. Hickman High (math 27% / reading 55%, grade F, #236 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 2,044 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.26%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,077
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -41.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1804 N Southeast Trails Dr	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,216 (-6%)	6mo	$220,000	$181	74
2008 N Southwest Ct	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,319 (+2%)	22mo	$198,000	$150	67
7405 W Country Hill Rd	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,401 (+8%)	14mo	$190,000	$136	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $7,739
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $60,294
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65202

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,634 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,689/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,145

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $135,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $135,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   pricedays on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   status Active 768-char remark
8. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 768-char remark
9. 2026-05-04
   listed $165,000 Active 768-char remark
10. 2011-09-14
    soldstatus
11. 2006-06-20
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Want new without the price tag of new? Remodeled home with stainless steel appliances to be installed end of May. New carpet, paint and tile flooring throughout. Large garage and workshop. Quiet area and great school. This is a must see. Buyers to verify all information.

12. 2006-05-10
    listed $124,900

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Want new without the price tag of new? Remodeled home with stainless steel appliances to be installed end of May. New carpet, paint and tile flooring throughout. Large garage and workshop. Quiet area and great school. This is a must see. Buyers to verify all information.

13. 2005-08-22
    soldstatus
14. 2005-08-12
    soldstatus
15. 2005-01-02
    listed $75,000
16. 2003-09-15
    listed $79,900
17. 1997-06-06
    soldstatus
18. 1997-03-07
    listed $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,689 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,689 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,689
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,569
• − Management: −$1,569
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $2,621
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$629
• After-tax cash flow: $4,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia 93
• NCES district ID: 2901000
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,547
• Composite: 31.21/100
• National rank: #6036
• State rank: #194 of 324 in MO

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #862

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Boone County · 158,877 people
• City population: 158,877
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 47,327
• Household income: $72,289
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1326.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.32%
• Current HPI: 205.5154
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+77.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $135,000 CBORMLS
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — CBORMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $165,000 CBORMLS
• 2011-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-06-20 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2006-05-10 Listed $124,900 CBORMLS
• 2005-08-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-08-12 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2005-01-02 Listed $75,000 CBORMLS
• 2003-09-15 Listed $79,900 CBORMLS
• 1997-06-06 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 1997-03-07 Listed $76,000 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,689 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.