477 Red Oak Ridge Rd

Castlewood, VA 24224

$44,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 327 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $889/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax + insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $398/mo
• Annual: $4,781/yr
• Cap rate: 17.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.81%
• DSCR: 2.73
• 1% rule: 2.02%
• Cash to close: $12,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $44k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($889 rent vs $44k).
• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $304 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $930 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#287 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Russell County Public School District (rural): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #44 of 131 in VA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Castlewood Elementary (math 51% / reading 62%, grade C+, #630 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 237 students, 92% FRL); Lebanon Middle (math 54% / reading 70%, grade B+, #143 of 342 statewide, top 43%, 291 students, 91% FRL); Castlewood High (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 314 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 49% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Russell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Russell County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $44k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior paint — Peeling paint
• Major: Interior walls — Exposed beams, unfinished walls
• Major: Flooring — Worn wooden floors
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — Incomplete fixtures