477 Red Oak Ridge Rd · Castlewood, VA 24224

$44,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 327 Days on market

Built 1900 Poor condition 0.25 ac lot $44/sqft · 65% below area ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated seller. Beautiful home with lots of potential. Several renovations/updates have been started to home. When you enter the home you will see the seller has left most wood work intact to keep with the historic charm of the home and character. You don't want to miss your opportunity to see this home. Call your favorite agent to schedule you showing. Buyer and buyers agent to verify all information.

Key facts

• Wood work intact
• Historic charm
• Several renovations

Tags

• HISTORIC CHARM
• WOOD WORK INTACT
• SEVERAL RENOVATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $44k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($889 rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#287 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Russell County Public School District (rural): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #44 of 131 in VA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Castlewood Elementary (math 51% / reading 62%, grade C+, #630 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 237 students, 92% FRL); Lebanon Middle (math 54% / reading 70%, grade B+, #143 of 342 statewide, top 43%, 291 students, 91% FRL); Castlewood High (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 314 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 49% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Russell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $304 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $930 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Russell County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 327 days — a 12% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $44k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 327 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.81%
• DSCR: 2.73
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,178
• List price: $44,000
• Delta: -65.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $19,914
• Equity at exit: $8,321

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $51,538
• Equity at exit: $6,898

Cash invested: $12,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24224

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$55 /mo · $660/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $385

Max offer price $44,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $429	-5% $414	+0% $398	+5% $383	+10% $368
Rent	-10% $328	-5% $363	+0% $398	+5% $434	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $421	-0.5pp $410	base $398	+0.5pp $387	+1.0pp $375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,000
• Closing costs: $1,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $44,000 Active 327 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $44,000 Active 325 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,000 Active 324 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,000 Active 323 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,000 Active 322 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,000 Active 321 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,000 Active 319 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,000 Active 318 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $44,000 Active 316 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $44,000 Active 315 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $44,000 Active 314 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,000 Active 313 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,000 Active 308 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,000 Active 307 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,000 Active 306 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $44,000 Active 305 DOM
17. 2025-11-06
    price $44,000 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Motivated seller. Beautiful home with lots of potential. Several renovations/updates have been started to home. When you enter the home you will see the seller has left most wood work intact to keep with the historic charm of the home and character. You don't want to miss your opportunity to see this home. Call your favorite agent to schedule you showing. Buyer and buyers agent to verify all information.

18. 2025-10-04
    price $48,000 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Motivated seller. Beautiful home with lots of potential. Several renovations/updates have been started to home. When you enter the home you will see the seller has left most wood work intact to keep with the historic charm of the home and character. You don't want to miss your opportunity to see this home. Call your favorite agent to schedule you showing. Buyer and buyers agent to verify all information.

19. 2025-09-04
    price $50,000 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Motivated seller. Beautiful home with lots of potential. Several renovations/updates have been started to home. When you enter the home you will see the seller has left most wood work intact to keep with the historic charm of the home and character. You don't want to miss your opportunity to see this home. Call your favorite agent to schedule you showing. Buyer and buyers agent to verify all information.

20. 2025-08-14
    price $55,000 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Motivated seller. Beautiful home with lots of potential. Several renovations/updates have been started to home. When you enter the home you will see the seller has left most wood work intact to keep with the historic charm of the home and character. You don't want to miss your opportunity to see this home. Call your favorite agent to schedule you showing. Buyer and buyers agent to verify all information.

21. 2025-07-29
    listed $60,000 Active 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Motivated seller. Beautiful home with lots of potential. Several renovations/updates have been started to home. When you enter the home you will see the seller has left most wood work intact to keep with the historic charm of the home and character. You don't want to miss your opportunity to see this home. Call your favorite agent to schedule you showing. Buyer and buyers agent to verify all information.

22. 2024-12-16
    price $50,000
23. 2024-10-17
    price $55,000
24. 2024-10-09
    price $60,000
25. 2021-12-06
    soldstatus $25,000
26. 2021-07-04
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,465
• − Property taxes: −$660
• − Insurance: −$220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$854
• − Management: −$854
• − Depreciation: −$1,280
• Taxable income: $4,339
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,041
• After-tax cash flow: $3,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations to bring it up to a livable condition. Immediate repairs and maintenance are needed to stabilize the structure and improve its appearance.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior paint — Peeling paint
• Major Interior walls — Exposed beams, unfinished walls
• Major Flooring — Worn wooden floors
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Incomplete fixtures

Value-add opportunities

• Both Exterior paint — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Interior walls — Completes the renovation and makes the space livable
• Both Flooring — Replaces worn wooden floors with durable materials
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Completes the renovation and makes the space functional

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior paint · Peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Exposed beams, unfinished walls	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Worn wooden floors	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Incomplete fixtures	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Exterior paint — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior walls — Completes the renovation and makes the space livable ↑
• Both Flooring — Replaces worn wooden floors with durable materials ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Completes the renovation and makes the space functional ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Russell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103420
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $34,970
• Composite: 54.14/100
• National rank: #1384
• State rank: #44 of 131 in VA

Livability — Castlewood

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #10291

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castlewood, VA
• Population (ZIP): 5,330

Population outlook (Russell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,787 people
• By 2030: 24,485 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 21,750 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 19,214 · -25.5%
• By 2075: 14,500 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 10,629 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Black 2% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Russell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.5) · D 16.1% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -54.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -67.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.5 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+58.9 2012: R+37.0 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.11%
• Current HPI: 149.7296
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $44,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $48,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $50,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $55,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed $60,000 TVRMLS
• 2024-12-16 Price Changed $50,000 TVRMLS
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $55,000 TVRMLS
• 2024-10-09 Price Changed $60,000 TVRMLS
• 2021-12-06 Sold (MLS) $25,000 TVRMLS
• 2021-07-04 Listed $45,000 TVRMLS