3068 Velvet Ln

North Port, FL 34286

$379,900F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,839 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,493/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax + insurance: −$633
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-656/mo
• Annual: $-7,870/yr
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.40%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $106,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-656 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (34.4% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($357k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $249k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cranberry Elementary School (math 69% / reading 68%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 785 students, 68% FRL); Heron Creek Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 902 students, 72% FRL); North Port High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,562 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 42% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 852 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $380k implies a 1233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.