3068 Velvet Ln · North Port, FL 34286

$379,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,839 sqft · Land · 87 Days on market

Built 2026 10,000 sqft lot $207/sqft · 11% above area Est $344k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pre-Construction. To be built. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Pre-Construction! Pictures are of finished model! Welcome to your brand-new home in the rapidly growing city of North Port! This pre-construction, to-be-built residence offers the perfect combination of modern design, comfort, and functionality. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, this thoughtfully designed floor plan is ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Step inside to an open-concept layout filled with natural light, seamlessly connecting the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The kitchen is designed for today’s lifestyle, with stylish finishes, quality cabinetry, and plenty of space to gather with family and friends. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat, complete with a well-appointed in-suite bathroom and generous closet space. Three additional bedrooms gives you flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing families. Situated on a desirable lot with southern exposure, this home is conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and easy access to I-75, making commuting simple. Enjoy being just a short drive from the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches while still benefiting from the space and affordability North Port is known for. And to make getting here even easier, the builder is contributing up to $11,400 toward your closing costs when using builder's preferred lender!! Don’t miss the opportunity to own a brand-new construction home with modern features, energy efficiency, and peace of mind. Secure your future home today!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-656 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (34.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 852 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($357k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $380k implies a 1233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,314 (34.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.40%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,631
• List price: $379,900
• Delta: 10.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-107,922
• Equity at exit: $56,644

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-165,901
• Equity at exit: $32,847

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34286

• Home prices YoY: -9.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,493 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$475 /mo · $5,698/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,323

Max offer price $285,001

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-393	-5% $-525	+0% $-656	+5% $-787	+10% $-918
Rent	-10% $-853	-5% $-754	+0% $-656	+5% $-557	+10% $-459
Rate	-1.0pp $-465	-0.5pp $-559	base $-656	+0.5pp $-754	+1.0pp $-854

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
96 Westview Pl Port Charlotte, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1120	$2,303	$2.06	14d	38	1.16mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,900 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,900 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,900 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $379,900 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $379,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $379,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $379,900 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,900 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,900 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,900 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,900 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-03-26
    listed $379,900 Active 1587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1587 chars)

    Pre-Construction. To be built. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Pre-Construction! Pictures are of finished model! Welcome to your brand-new home in the rapidly growing city of North Port! This pre-construction, to-be-built residence offers the perfect combination of modern design, comfort, and functionality. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, this thoughtfully designed floor plan is ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Step inside to an open-concept layout filled with natural light, seamlessly connecting the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The kitchen is designed for today’s lifestyle, with stylish finishes, quality cabinetry, and plenty of space to gather with family and friends. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat, complete with a well-appointed in-suite bathroom and generous closet space. Three additional bedrooms gives you flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing families. Situated on a desirable lot with southern exposure, this home is conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and easy access to I-75, making commuting simple. Enjoy being just a short drive from the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches while still benefiting from the space and affordability North Port is known for. And to make getting here even easier, the builder is contributing up to $11,400 toward your closing costs when using builder's preferred lender!! Don’t miss the opportunity to own a brand-new construction home with modern features, energy efficiency, and peace of mind. Secure your future home today!

18. 2024-12-03
    soldstatus $28,500
19. 2022-08-29
    soldstatus $16,000 Closed 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    This location is minutes away from Warm Mineral Spring, great schools, shops, restaurants and great health care. Close by is the Myakka River and preserves. There is something here for everyone! Get your slice of paradise in southwest Florida!

20. 2022-08-22
    soldstatus $12,000
21. 2022-08-01
    status Pending 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    This location is minutes away from Warm Mineral Spring, great schools, shops, restaurants and great health care. Close by is the Myakka River and preserves. There is something here for everyone! Get your slice of paradise in southwest Florida!

22. 2022-07-26
    price $16,000 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    This location is minutes away from Warm Mineral Spring, great schools, shops, restaurants and great health care. Close by is the Myakka River and preserves. There is something here for everyone! Get your slice of paradise in southwest Florida!

23. 2022-07-21
    price $21,000 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    This location is minutes away from Warm Mineral Spring, great schools, shops, restaurants and great health care. Close by is the Myakka River and preserves. There is something here for everyone! Get your slice of paradise in southwest Florida!

24. 2022-07-14
    price $24,500 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    This location is minutes away from Warm Mineral Spring, great schools, shops, restaurants and great health care. Close by is the Myakka River and preserves. There is something here for everyone! Get your slice of paradise in southwest Florida!

25. 2022-07-06
    listed $27,000 Active 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    This location is minutes away from Warm Mineral Spring, great schools, shops, restaurants and great health care. Close by is the Myakka River and preserves. There is something here for everyone! Get your slice of paradise in southwest Florida!

26. 2017-05-30
    soldstatus $12,650
27. 2016-07-29
    historical
28. 2016-07-10
    listed $13,300 Active
29. 2016-04-18
    soldstatus $46,500
30. 2005-09-02
    soldstatus $51,400
31. 2005-07-26
    soldstatus $48,000
32. 2005-05-10
    listed $51,900
33. 2005-04-20
    listed $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$5,698
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,393
• − Management: −$2,393
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable loss: −$14,799
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,552
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Port

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Port, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 75,324
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,534
• Household income: $80,553
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 545.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.36%
• Current HPI: 297.3707
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+667.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $379,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records
• 2022-08-29 Sold (MLS) $16,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-26 Price Changed $16,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-21 Price Changed $21,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-14 Price Changed $24,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-06 Listed $27,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $12,650 Public Records
• 2016-07-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-10 Listed $13,300 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 2005-09-02 Sold (MLS) $51,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-26 Sold (MLS) $48,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-10 Listed $51,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-20 Listed $49,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $758 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.