5200 Entrar

Palmdale, CA 93551

$215,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 372 sqft · Built 2002 · Land · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,787/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $716/mo
• Annual: $8,591/yr
• Cap rate: 10.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.27%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $716 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gregg Anderson Academy (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 867 students, 27% FRL); Hillview Middle (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #474 of 498 statewide, top 99%, 907 students, 53% FRL); Quartz Hill High (3,066 students, 42% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Westside Union Elementary average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 388 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 32 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 10% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.