5501 Fm 2606

Scotland, TX 76365

$50,500B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,340 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $987/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$265
• Tax + insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $318/mo
• Annual: $3,814/yr
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.97%
• DSCR: 2.20
• 1% rule: 1.95%
• Cash to close: $14,140

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($987 rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $349 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#601 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Henrietta ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #219 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Henrietta El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 481 students, 53% FRL); Henrietta Middle (math 50% / reading 43%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 226 students, 48% FRL); Henrietta H S (math 37% / reading 72%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 287 students, 36% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.