909 Oak St

Frederick, MD 21703

$295,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,335/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$403
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-105/mo
• Annual: $-1,263/yr
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.53%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (20.8% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $234k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in MD, #3,041 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, cost of living D+.
• Frederick County Public Schools (other): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #4 of 24 in MD (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary (math 12% / reading 16%, grade F, #513 of 860 statewide, top 60%, 618 students, 77% FRL); West Frederick Middle (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #118 of 225 statewide, top 54%, 776 students, 61% FRL); Frederick High (math 42% / reading 64%, grade C-, #95 of 222 statewide, top 43%, 1,829 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 20% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,562 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (374 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Frederick County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.3% in Frederick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.