3810 Gulf OF Mexico Dr Unit F206

Longboat Key, FL 34228

$325,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,007 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,533/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$867
• HOA: −$1,546
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$952
• Net cashflow: $-536/mo
• Annual: $-6,436/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-536 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (29.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $325k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#693 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southside Elementary School (math 79% / reading 81%, grade A+, #110 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 687 students, 26% FRL); Booker Middle School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 950 students, 76% FRL); Booker High School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 1,309 students, 68% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 34% of rent.
• Market conditions: 543 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 0.5% in Longboat Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.