3810 Gulf OF Mexico Dr Unit F206 · Longboat Key, FL 34228

$325,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,007 sqft · Condo public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1970 $1546/mo HOA · 34% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Start living the Longboat Key lifestyle from day one in this furnished coastal condominium at Beach Harbor Club with serene bay views. This spacious two bedroom, two bath residence is ideally located in a sought after beach to bay community along Gulf of Mexico Drive. Positioned on the second floor with convenient elevator access, the residence is filled with natural light and offers a comfortable, easy flowing layout. The living and dining areas feel bright and inviting, with soft views of Sarasota Bay creating a calm, coastal backdrop. Beautiful luxury vinyl flooring extends throughout much of the residence, adding a fresh and cohesive feel. The kit

Key facts

• $1,546 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-536 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (29.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $230k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 0.5% in Longboat Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#693 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southside Elementary School (math 79% / reading 81%, grade A+, #110 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 687 students, 26% FRL); Booker Middle School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 950 students, 76% FRL); Booker High School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 1,309 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 543 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 34% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,258 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-31,167
• Equity at exit: $106,370

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-10,383
• Equity at exit: $137,881

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34228

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 543
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,533 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,657/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,546
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$952
• Net cashflow: $-536

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,211

Max offer price $230,258

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-352	-5% $-444	+0% $-536	+5% $-628	+10% $-720
Rent	-10% $-894	-5% $-715	+0% $-536	+5% $-357	+10% $-178
Rate	-1.0pp $-373	-0.5pp $-454	base $-536	+0.5pp $-621	+1.0pp $-706

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4325 Gulf of Mexico Dr Longboat Key, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1373	$5,500	$4.00	18d	3	0.80mi
600 Sutton Pl #201 Longboat Key, FL	1.0	1.0	836	$3,200	$3.83	25d	1	0.86mi
4340 Falmouth Dr Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1330	$3,000	$2.26	25d	1	1.08mi
4420 Exeter Dr #208 Longboat Key, FL	2.0	2.0	1168	$4,900	$4.20	25d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,546 · $18,552/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $325,000 Active
3. 2026-03-14
   historical $2,475
4. 2026-01-06
   price $2,475
5. 2025-06-17
   listed $2,495
6. 2003-03-11
   soldstatus $225,000
7. 1981-07-01
   soldstatus $83,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,657 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,657 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$3,657
• − Insurance: −$6,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,351
• − Management: −$4,351
• − HOA: −$18,552
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$10,924
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,622
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Longboat Key

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #693
• US rank: #14452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Longboat Key, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 7,539
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,539
• Household income: $158,030
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 98.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Current HPI: 234.5017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+289.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Rental Removed $2,475 STELLARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $2,475 STELLARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listed for Rent $2,495 STELLARMLS
• 2003-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 1981-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,657 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.