2307 Old Oak Ln

Houston, TX 77339

$220,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,519 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,821/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$611
• HOA: −$31
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-357/mo
• Annual: $-4,281/yr
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.95%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-357 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (17.2% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Hills El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 551 students, 51% FRL); Kingwood Middle (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 1,002 students, 48% FRL); Kingwood Park H S (math 48% / reading 56%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 1,950 students, 32% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.