4045 49th Ave SW #55

Tumwater, WA 98512

$199,950C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 227 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,738/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $123/mo
• Annual: $1,478/yr
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.06%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $55,986

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (13.1% below list).
• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $200k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.