4045 49th Ave SW #55 · Tumwater, WA 98512

$199,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 227 Days on market

Built 1976 $238/sqft · 58% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy lakeside living on Black Lake in Olympia with this waterfront gem! This home features brand-new hardwood floors, a remodeled bathroom, and a private EV charging station. With stunning lake views from your windows and community amenities like boat storage and direct lake access, this is the perfect spot for a peaceful, adventure-ready lifestyle.

Key facts

• Remodeled bathroom
• Lake views
• Direct lake access

Tags

• WATERFRONT GEM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• PRIVATE EV CHARGING STATION
• LAKE VIEWS
• DIRECT LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $200k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,795 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.06%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,279
• List price: $199,950
• Delta: 58.34%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4045 49th Ave SW #12	0.02mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	24mo	$124,500	$148	79
4045 49th Ave SW #70	0.00mi	2/1.0	728 (-13%)	2mo	$115,000	$158	76
4707 Black Lake Belmore Rd SW #36	0.16mi	1/1.0 (-1)	880 (+5%)	12mo	$137,000	$156	70
4045 49th Ave SW #76	0.00mi	2/1.0	768 (-9%)	20mo	$135,000	$176	69
5615 Black Lake Belmore Rd SW #9	0.36mi	2/1.0	756 (-10%)	23mo	$69,600	$92	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-25,895
• Equity at exit: $29,813

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,863
• Equity at exit: $17,288

Cash invested: $55,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98512

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $618/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,582

Max offer price $199,950

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,988
• Closing costs: $5,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,950 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,950 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,950 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,950 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,950 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,950 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,950 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,950 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,950 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,950 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,950 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,950 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,950 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,950 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,950 Active 208 DOM
16. 2026-01-25
    price $199,950
17. 2025-11-03
    listed $209,950 Active
18. 2023-12-01
    soldstatus $82,000 Closed
19. 2023-11-20
    status Pending
20. 2023-10-25
    price $89,500
21. 2023-09-29
    status Active
22. 2023-09-05
    status Pending
23. 2023-08-28
    listed $97,500 Active
24. 2006-05-31
    soldstatus $30,000
25. 2006-04-22
    listed $32,000
26. 2000-10-16
    soldstatus $24,000
27. 2000-04-15
    listed $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $618 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,960 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,342/yr (+$112/mo · 217.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,200
• − Property taxes: −$618
• − Insurance: −$1,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,668
• − Management: −$1,668
• − Depreciation: −$5,817
• Taxable loss: −$1,913
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$459
• After-tax cash flow: $1,937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tumwater School District
• NCES district ID: 5309100
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,209
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #2477
• State rank: #37 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tumwater

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #700

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 46,937
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,864
• Household income: $101,530
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.18%
• Current HPI: 347.121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+568.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $199,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Listed $209,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-01 Sold (MLS) $82,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-25 Price Changed $89,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-29 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-05 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-28 Listed $97,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-31 Sold (MLS) $30,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-22 Listed $32,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-16 Sold (MLS) $24,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-04-15 Listed $29,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $618 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.