616 27th Ave NE

Great Falls, MT 59404

$225,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,872/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-76/mo
• Annual: $-911/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-911/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (16.8% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#19 in MT, #2,473 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Great Falls H S (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #79 of 116 in MT (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sacajawea School (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #99 of 293 statewide, top 34%, 407 students, 0% FRL); North Middle School (math 43% / reading 55%, grade C-, #34 of 146 statewide, top 24%, 724 students, 0% FRL); C M Russell High School (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #47 of 132 statewide, top 35%, 1,454 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 33% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Great Falls H S average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 223 units permitted in Cascade County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cascade County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Great Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.