616 27th Ave NE · Great Falls, MT 59404

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1963 8,146 sqft lot Est $326k · 31% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built-in cabinetry
• Charming gazebo
• Peaceful pond

Tags

• BUILT-IN CABINETRY
• 3-SEASON PORCH
• CHARMING GAZEBO
• DECORATIVE BRIDGE
• PEACEFUL POND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Finished below-grade area (816); Foundation: see remarks
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Lot approximately 8,146 sq ft (0.187 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Interior features: Finished basement; Enclosed patio/porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-911/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Great Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#19 in MT, #2,473 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Great Falls H S (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #79 of 116 in MT (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sacajawea School (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #99 of 293 statewide, top 34%, 407 students, 0% FRL); North Middle School (math 43% / reading 55%, grade C-, #34 of 146 statewide, top 24%, 724 students, 0% FRL); C M Russell High School (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #47 of 132 statewide, top 35%, 1,454 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 33% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Great Falls H S average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 223 units permitted in Cascade County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cascade County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $187,212 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $326,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
500 25th Ave NE	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (0%)	4mo	$327,000	$200	81
432 23rd Ave NE	0.31mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,632 (0%)	3mo	$337,000	$206	74
517 27th Ave NE	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,696 (+4%)	10mo	$299,500	$177	74
500 24th Ave NE	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,632 (0%)	18mo	$262,900	$161	74
212 Riverview 2 E	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (0%)	1mo	$349,000	$214	73
408 23rd Ave NE	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+3%)	10mo	$320,000	$190	65
3405 5th St NE	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,574 (-4%)	3mo	$380,000	$241	62
210 Riverview 3 E	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (0%)	12mo	$349,900	$214	61
2405 4th St NE	0.32mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,728 (+6%)	9mo	$350,000	$203	58
632 33rd Ave NE	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,824 (+12%)	13mo	$334,000	$183	47
743 33b Ave NE	0.53mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,820 (+12%)	7mo	$339,777	$187	41
136 Riverview B	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+10%)	7mo	$265,000	$147	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-41,269
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-42,050
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59404

• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $214,010

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $2	+0% $-76	+5% $-154	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-224	-5% $-150	+0% $-76	+5% $-2	+10% $72
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $-19	base $-76	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   price $225,000
3. 2026-04-16
   price $255,000
4. 2026-03-31
   listed $270,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,778
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,147
• After-tax cash flow: $235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Great Falls H S
• NCES district ID: 3013050
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,586
• Composite: 28.03/100
• National rank: #6846
• State rank: #79 of 116 in MT

Livability — Great Falls

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #2473

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Great Falls, MT
• County: Cascade County · 75,427 people
• City population: 75,427
• Metro: Great Falls, MT
• Population (ZIP): 28,822
• Household income: $83,867
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 280.0

Population outlook (Cascade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,936 people
• By 2030: 81,376 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 79,435 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 77,906 · -4.9%
• By 2075: 78,595 · -4.1%
• By 2100: 79,997 · -2.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cascade

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.3) · D 37.3% · R 59.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -22.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.3 2020: R+19.7 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+9.1 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.73%
• Current HPI: 208.7527
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Great Falls, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $225,000 MRMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $255,000 MRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $270,000 MRMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $242 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.